TULSA GAMES
NO. 3 BAYLOR (25-7) VS. NO. 14 NEW MEXICO STATE (28-5)
East Region Time, TV: 12:40 p.m., truTV
Why Baylor will win: The Bears are long and very athletic, led by fourth-year junior Johnathan Motley, a versatile power forward who’s a load inside but hard to stop outside. An upset last year in the first round by Yale hasn’t been forgotten, making it less likely they’ll overlook the Aggies.
Why New Mexico State will win: This team has become an NCAA tournament regular — the Aggies are making their fifth appearance in six years — but is looking for its first win since 1993. Ian Baker, who scored 21 on Baylor when the teams played a year ago, leads the Aggies, who can score from three-point range but will need to find a way to hold their own on the boards.
NO. 6 SMU (30-4) VS. NO. 11 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (25-9)
East Region Time, TV: Approx. 3:10 p.m., truTV
Why Southern Methodist will win: The Mustangs, who have won 26 of their last 27 games, do it with defense, allowing fewer than 60 points per game. They don’t turn the ball over much or foul, either — both potential keys to winning in the NCAA. Why Southern California will win: Fresh off a comeback win against Providence in the First Four, the Trojans will rely on their perimeter offense, which often allows them to overcome suspect defense. USC should be confident after rallying from a 17-point deficit in Dayton.
NO. 1 KANSAS (28-4) VS. NO. 16 UC-DAVIS (23-12)
Midwest Region Time, TV: 6:50 p.m., TNT
Why Kansas will win: Though not deep, the Jayhawks are undeniably talented and tough. Led by senior guard Frank Mason III, USA TODAY Sports’ national player of the year, and freshman guardforward Josh Jackson, Kansas has plenty of firepower. Coming off an upset loss to TCU in the Big 12 tournament, the Jayhawks should be inoculated from another upset. Why UC-Davis will win: UC-Davis isn’t big, but the Aggies have regularly outrebounded opponents. They’re not a great offensive team, but they counter it with tough defense. And, hey, someone has to be the first No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed, right? Right?
NO. 8 MIAMI (FLA.) (21-11) VS. NO. 9 MICHIGAN STATE (19-14)
Midwest Region Time, TV: Approx. 9:20 p.m., TNT
Why Miami will win: In a loaded Atlantic Coast Conference, the Hurricanes more than held their own, beating North Carolina, Duke and Virginia. The three-guard tandem of Davon Reed, Ja’Quan Newton and Bruce Brown provides leadership and offensive firepower, and Miami ranked No. 20 in defense in the KenPom ratings.
Why Michigan State will win: The Spartans have been inconsistent, but the rapid development of freshman forward Miles Bridges gives them a chance vs. anyone. Then there’s coach Tom Izzo, who regularly takes this team deeper than predicted in the tournament.