House heads for ‘defining moment’
ability to convert his electoral victory into legislation. After all, Republicans have controlled Congress for more than two years. The only missing ingredient was a Republican president’s signing pen.
The 10 bills Trump has signed have been either non-controversial measures or up-or-down resolutions to overturn specific Obama-era regulations. The American Health Care Act is far more sweeping: Not only would it largely repeal Obamacare, but it would build a health insurance system to replace it.
Trump has put significant political capital behind the effort, meeting almost daily with lawmakers at the White House — including 18 House Republicans on Wednesday. He has suggested that Republicans who don’t get on board may face opposition in GOP primary elections next year.
It would be “historically unusual” for a president to suffer such a huge legislative loss in his first 100 days, says Casey Dominguez, a political science professor at the University of San Diego. That’s especially true for Trump, who has a double advantage of being a new president whose party controls Congress.
If he does lose, it probably won’t have much effect on other issues. Presidents “do learn how to manage relations with Congress as time goes on,” Dominguez says, and Trump’s political fortunes have been particularly resilient.
SPEAKER PAUL RYAN The looming House showdown is an acid test of Ryan’s ability to deliver on the promise of unified Republican rule.
“We as a party have been an opposition party for 10 years. … Now, in three months’ time, we have to go from being an opposition party to being a governing party,” he told talk radio host Jay Weber on Wednesday.
Ryan called the vote his party’s “rendezvous with destiny.”
It is also the sternest measure by far of his 16-month-old tenure as speaker, of his leadership style, salesmanship, dealmaking skills and capacity to corral a Republican caucus united in disdain for Obamacare but fractured over what should take its place.
Winning House passage Thursday would be a provisional victory; the GOP health care plan would face daunting odds in the Senate. Failure to pass a bill in the House could damage Ryan’s speakership and undermine his far-reaching conservative agenda, which for political, parliamentary and budget reasons hinges on early repeal of the law.
Losing this vote “makes the speaker look weak,” says Matt Green, a Catholic University political scientist and expert on the of- fice of House speaker. “It empowers skeptical groups in his party, particularly the Freedom Caucus, and emboldens them to challenge Ryan on future bills. It could arguably worsen the relationship between president and the speaker.”
REPUBLICANS The leader of the staunchly conservative House Freedom Caucus didn’t mince words about how important the vote is for his group.
“This is a defining moment for our nation, but it’s also a defining moment for the Freedom Caucus,” said Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C, chairman of the caucus. “And so, when we look at that, I don’t think there’s a more critical vote for the Freedom Caucus than this.”
The group of roughly three dozen lawmakers said the bill does not go far enough in repealing the Affordable Care Act, and members could have the votes to sink it — if they stick together.
If that happens, the caucus could gain leverage in future legislation. Blocking it also could leave the group with the not-so-re-election-friendly distinction of aiding gridlock in Washington — despite Republicans having control of the White House and both chambers of Congress.
DEMOCRATS Democrats are trying to rally the support of the public to their cause. The party rolled out former vice president Joe Biden on Wednesday, hoping to highlight the benefits of the Affordable Care Act and preserve the law.
At a rally on the U.S. Capitol steps with fellow Democrats and people who have benefited from the 2010 law, Biden said the Republican legislation is a “tax bill” that would benefit only drugmakers, insurance companies and medical device manufacturers.
The bill could wipe a key achievement from the legacies of Obama and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who as House speaker in 2010 helped spearhead passage of the Affordable Care Act.
If the Republican bill fails, it would strengthen somewhat the Democrats’ position. Republicans could be forced to use another legislative route that requires 60 votes in the Senate — a margin they can’t reach without Democrats.
Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer on Wednesday echoing Biden’s 2010 remark when Obamacare passed, said it would be a “BFD” if Democrats could beat “Trumpcare” and prevent it from passing.