Putin’s allegiance to Assad about to be put to the test
Syria stakes are high as U.S., Russia meet
When Secretary of State Rex Tillerson travels to Moscow on Tuesday, he will search for common ground with Russia on ending Syria’s long civil war — and the brutal reign of Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Both goals will be extraordinarily tough to achieve: President Vladimir Putin has been Assad’s strongest ally, and Russia’s military has provided him a major boost against rebels since 2015.
Yet Putin may be more open to a deal after last week’s U.S. missile strike on a Syrian air base in response to Assad’s suspected use of chemical weapons on a rebelheld village that killed dozens of civilians, including children, analysts say. The attack April 4 drew global condemnation, and the Trump administration suggested Russia was
complicit in the assault.
“Putin lost a lot of face in Syria with Assad” because the chemical attack provoked U.S. retaliation and Russia was supposed to be a bulwark against foreign military intervention, said Michael Pregent, a former U.S. intelligence officer who served in Iraq.
The Moscow meeting “creates an opportunity to exploit the schism between Putin and Assad” and get an agreement to replace the Syrian strongman, said Pregent, now with the Hudson Institute think tank.
Russia’s goal from the start of the Syria conflict has been to protect its Middle East ally and Russia’s naval base in Tartus, its only military installation in the Mediterranean and outside Europe. But the Kremlin noted after the chemical attack that its support for Assad is not “unconditional.”
Last week, Jordan’s King Abdullah II suggested in an interview with The Washington Post before meeting President Trump at the White House that the U.S. should offer Putin a “horse trade” involving the Ukrainian province of Crimea that Russia seized and Russia’s support for Assad. Should the U.S. “come to an understanding (with Russia) on Crimea, I think you will see much more flexibility on Syria,” Abdullah said Thursday.
Russia’s economy has been hurt by U.S. and European sanctions imposed to punish it for seizing Crimea and supporting separatists waging war against government forces in eastern Ukraine. During his campaign for president, Trump raised the possibility of accepting Crimea as Russian territory and lifting the sanctions imposed by President Obama.
An agreement on removing Assad also could pave the way for joint U.S.-Russian military action to defeat the Islamic State, or ISIS, one of the many groups opposed to Assad. A U.S.-led air campaign is focused on destroying the militant group, which got its start fighting in Syria. Russian planes also have targeted ISIS.
Assad’s ouster also has its dangers, as the U.S. military learned when it invaded Iraq in 2003 and overthrew strongman Saddam Hussein. Iraq fell into chaos because of a power vacuum that led to fighting among ethnic and religious rivals, and some of that conflict continues today. In addition, the turmoil contributed to the Islamic State’s expansion into Iraq.
Trump did not share Obama’s view that Assad must go because of repeated atrocities until last week’s chemical attack. Now it appears to be a goal after the top U.S. priority: defeating ISIS.
Tillerson’s trip to Moscow, where he will meet with his Russian counterpart and possibly Putin, will “be an awkward visit, but a very revealing visit,” said Frederic Hof, director of Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council and a former State Department Syria expert.
Whether Putin and Tillerson — who dealt with the Russian leader as head of ExxonMobil — can collaborate will be revealed by their candor about who was responsible for the nerve gas attack in Syria, Hof said. The United States and human rights groups put the blame squarely on Assad, possibly with Russian help.
The Russians said the gas was released in a Syrian strike on a terrorist chemical lab.
Tillerson told reporters Thursday that “steps are underway” for an international coalition to remove Assad from office through a political process, and he later detailed how the U.S. will seek to bring about that result. He said the U.S. would focus first on defeating ISIS and turning over control of liberated areas to local anti-Assad leaders and returning refugees. The plan then is to rely on diplomacy to oust Assad.
“There is a new dynamic in play,” said Edward Djerejian, director of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and Israel. “Let’s see what opportunities may open up.”
“There is a new dynamic in play. Let’s see what opportunities may open up.” Edward Djerejian, former U.S. ambassador to Syria