16 teams, 16 reasons to worry
Who will be last team standing with Stanley Cup?
The NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs begin Wednesday, the beginning of a two-month battle for Lord Stanley’s Cup. Every team enters with big aspirations, but each has blemishes that could prevent it from being the last team standing.
USA TODAY Sports takes a look at an issue each team faces entering the playoffs: Anaheim Ducks: Corey Perry ’s luck. Perry scored 19 goals on 8.8% of his shots, significantly lower than his 13.2% career rate and 15.8% from last season. Can the Ducks be a Stanley Cup-winning team with Perry being a complementary player? He has been a major factor in playoffs past. Boston Bruins: Same luck. There is a lot to like here when you look past the surface stats. The team generates a lot of shots and scoring chances and plays a strong defensive game. Their PDO (save percentage plus shooting percentage) is 98.1, second lowest in the league, meaning they’ve faced some bad luck. While goalie Tuukka Rask has had a down year, the Bruins need an offensive correction to propel them. Calgary Flames: Goaltending. They have jelled enough that they should be a tough out in the playoffs. But their overall goaltending has been below average. Brian Elliott has rebounded after a rough start, and Elliott’s past suggests he at least could be an average playoff goaltender. Chicago Blackhawks: Nashville Predators. As USA TODAY Sports’ Kevin Allen notes, the Blackhawks have a master’s degree in winning. But the eighth seed doesn’t do the Predators’ potential justice. Their defense is elite and deep, their forward group strong and their underlying metrics — from possession to expected goals-for percentage — are favorable. Nashville could be one of the biggest tests for Chicago in the Western Conference. Columbus Blue Jackets: Playoff path. This is an exciting group that has learned to be harder on the puck, thanks to the demands of coach John Tortorella. But are the young Blue Jackets ready for the next step? Columbus drew a difficult card: first the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins and then, most likely, the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Washington Capitals. Edmonton Oilers: One-di-
mensional. Connor McDavid is the force that gives this team legitimate Stanley Cup hopes. But do the Oilers rely too much on him? When he’s on the ice, the Oilers score 61.6% of the goals and control 53.1% of the shot share, per puckalytics.com. When he’s off: 48.3 goals for percentage, 48.1% possession. The Oilers might be a year or two away. Minnesota Wild: Late-season inconsistency. A Bruce Boudreau-coached team in the playoffs? Shocker. While the Wild have the ingredients to make a deep run, they’ve been inconsistent since March 1, with an 8-11-2 record. Three of those wins came against playoff teams. Montreal Canadiens: Fin
ishers. The advanced metrics paint a positive picture. The Canadiens are a top-tier possession, scoring chance and expected goals-for team. However, they finished 15th in goals per game and have only two players with more than 20 goals — Max Pacioretty (35) and Paul Byron (22). Do they have enough offensive punch to win a hard-fought postseason series? Center depth could be an issue. Nashville Predators: Pekka Rinne. This group could upset the field, but the Predators need Rinne to raise his game in the playoffs. His .918 regular-season save percentage was good enough, but he needs to be even better now, when the games are tighter.
His .912 career playoff save percentage won’t cut it. New York Rangers: Defense. New year, same story. It’s Henrik Lundqvist or bust yet again. Whether you use the eye test or analytics, the defensivezone coverage and puck-moving ability of this group can be ugly. It’s a good thing Ryan McDonagh got some rest toward the end of the season. Ottawa Senators: What’s their strength? Craig Anderson sports a .926 save percentage, certainly good enough to win a series. But what else does Ottawa do well? The Senators are 22nd in goals, 23rd in power-play efficiency and 22nd in penalty-kill percentage. The Senators are below average in possession and scoring-chance generation. So, what can they lean on? Pittsburgh Penguins: No
Kris Letang. Much of the same group that won it all last year is here now, with a deeper defense. However, the Penguins have been battered with injuries, and even if most of the regulars — which include Evgeni Malkin, Carl Hagelin and Chris Kunitz — return, they will be without Letang, a bona fide No. 1 defenseman and driving force to their 2016 title. Letang is a difference-maker. San Jose Sharks: Top heavy. The Sharks’ goal scoring comes mostly from four players: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture and Patrick Marleau. Their bottom six doesn’t really present matchup problems, meaning their forward depth could be an issue. St. Louis Blues: Jake Allen. The Blues have played better since firing Ken Hitchcock on Feb. 1. Even with Allen turning his season around, there are questions about him, and his .915 save percentage is about league average. Allen has struggled in the playoffs, posting a .902 save percentage in 12 games the past two seasons. Toronto Maple Leafs: Not quite there yet. This is a young team with its best player, Auston Matthews, 19. They will be forced
to learn playoff hockey on the fly, against the NHL’s best team, the Capitals. This lesson might be key to their next step. Can they play with less risk come playoff time? Washington Capitals: Pres
sure. The Capitals won the Presidents’ Trophy in back-to-back seasons. But it means nothing without a Stanley Cup. They are set up to win now and have a good chance of finally winning it all in the Alex Ovechkin era. The Capitals’ disappointing playoff history, plus that the fact coach Barry Trotz and Ovechkin have never reached a conference final, add to the intrigue.