Georgia race indicates House is in play in 2018
Democrats energized, but they still face difficult challenge
A special election this week in Georgia that turned into a referendum on President Trump made one thing clear: The U.S. House is in play in 2018 — something that, until recently, was highly unlikely.
Though the Democrat, Jon Ossoff, fell shy of cracking the 50% threshold needed to win the seat outright, his showing Tuesday is a swing from a few months ago, when Republican Tom Price won the seat by a comfortable 24-percentage-point margin. Price went on to become Trump’s Health and Human Services secretary.
The race goes to a runoff June 20 against Republican Karen Handel. Non-partisan political experts agreed it’s too close to call for a seat that’s been held by Republicans for nearly 40 years.
“The fact that it’s so close suggests the House is in play,” said David Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report. “Trump’s election is the best thing that’s happened to Democrats’ chances of retaking the House.”
Democrats weren’t supposed to have a chance at retaking the House because Republicans enjoy such a strong advantage after GOP-led redistricting. According to Cook estimates, Republicans need to win only 32% of swing districts while Democrats need 69% to win control.
“We used to think of the House as gone forever because of redistricting,” Wasserman said. “This (the Georgia race) was a pretty good result for Democrats in that it shows progress.”
Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to take control of the House, which they lost during President Obama’s first midterm election in 2010. There are 71 districts that are more favorable to Democrats than the suburban Atlanta district where Ossoff and Handel are in a heated race, according to the
Cook partisan voter index. There are 23 Republicans representing districts that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won in 2016, including New Jersey’s Leonard Lance, who has been dogged by constituents over Trump’s Affordable Care Act replacement, and California’s Darrell Issa, who won by less than 1 percentage point.
The negative climate for vulnerable Republicans could intensify over the next 18 months, depending on public sentiment over Trump’s potential corporate conflicts of interest, investigations into alleged ties to Russia and domestic policy goals, including a tax overhaul. In his first 100 days, there have been no major legislative accomplishments. Republicans are preparing to reintroduce an Obamacare replacement after the previous one netted 17% approval.
“If Republicans don’t have much to show in the way of accomplishments, that will only exacerbate this existential threat,” said Doug Heye, who was a top aide to former House majority leader Eric Cantor, R-Va.
History shows the midterm elections typically go against the party in power. The trend goes at least back to Franklin Roosevelt’s 71-seat loss in 1938. More recently, Obama lost 63 seats in his first midterm election. Though Republican President George W. Bush picked up eight seats in 2002, he lost 30, and control of the House, in his second midterm election in 2006.
The 23 seats where Clinton won could be difficult to pry from Republican hands. Many are occupied by incumbents who won by sizable margins. According to the National Republican Congressional Committee, in those 23 districts, the Republican incumbents won, on average, with a comfortable 12-percentage-point margin in 2016.
Democrats won’t be able to pump $8 million into each of these races, as they did with Ossoff in Georgia.
This week, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez is on a unity tour with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a de facto leader of the liberal wing of the party after his popular primary run against Clinton. Sanders has refused to endorse Ossoff.
According to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, there have been 300 candidate recruitment conversations in more than 70 districts. “The Democrats are kind of kids in a candy shop right now,” Wasserman said.
“If Republicans don’t have much to show in the way of accomplishments, that will only exacerbate this existential threat.” Doug Heye, former House aide