In French vote, beware the leftist dark horse
More than one danger awaits a united Europe and the United States when French voters go to the polls Sunday for the tightest and most polarizing presidential vote in the history of the modern French republic.
Of the five candidates, most commentators have focused on the perils represented by farright populist Marine Le Pen and her ultranationalist Front National. Few have focused on the candidate at the other political extreme — a 65-year-old onetime Trotskyist, Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Both Melenchon and Le Pen want France out of the European Union and, most disturbingly for America, France out of NATO. It’s all a tribute to the circular reality of French politics — rather than a left-to-right spectrum, the landscape has become an oval roller derby, with both extremes meeting at the far side of the track.
If the French put Melenchon and Le Pen into the final round, they will have effectively voted for Frexit — France following Britain out of the EU.
Melenchon exploded out of the pack of 11 contenders for the first round of the bizarre presidential sweepstakes within the past few weeks. His rallies have grown in size and intensity as this remarkable orator tells cheering masses, “The French Revolution of 1789 hasn’t breathed its last.” And Melenchon, who loves to recite the same poetry of Victor Hugo that millions of French schoolchildren have needed to memorize, appeals to many who now vote. But Melenchon also admires Venezuelan left-wing strongman Hugo Chavez in equal measure with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
Melenchon’s style is not unlike that of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the father of Marine, who continues to be, though just barely, near the top of the polls. But her success seems not to have grown much beyond the quarter of the French electorate loyal to her brand of populism. Now, she is seeking to appeal to the deep fears of these voters by rolling the dice on a return to her core issues of a total immigration ban and tough security measures in a nation torn by terrorist attacks.
Which brings us to the leading mainstream candidate, long considered most likely to become president — Emmanuel Macron.
Having broken with the Socialist Party that nurtured him, Macron is running as a true independent. At 39, a full generation younger than Melenchon, Macron is a former minister of economics and Rothschild banker. He has expressed quite vocally his loyalty to Europe, the euro and NATO.
Macron should be quite reassuring to mainstream French, Europeans and Americans. The problem is that this is neither a mainstream nor a reassuring presidential election year.
It has been a year filled with excitement, though — fake news and well-sourced reports of Russian meddling (largely in favor of Le Pen).
For the moment, good money is still riding on Macron and Le Pen to run head-to-head in the runoff two weeks from Sunday.
Then again, in France, there is no normal but the unexpected.