Trubisky, Watson lead quarterback class
As the NFL draft nears, USA TODAY Sports is providing rankings for each position group. Today: quarterbacks.
1. MITCH TRUBISKY, NORTH CAROLINA 6-2, 222
He displayed excellent accuracy (68% completion rate) and decision-making (six interceptions against 30 touchdown passes) last season, his first as the Tar Heels starter. He has more than enough arm strength for the NFL, though it’s not necessarily elite, and he occasionally struggles to sufficiently lead receivers on deep balls. He does a good job of keeping his eyes downfield, even when under duress, and is adept at cycling through his reads. Trubisky doesn’t rely on solid athleticism but is perfectly capable of running for large chunks of yardage when a play breaks down. He had a huge day, passing for 405 yards and three scores, to upset Florida State on the road, but fell flat the next week at home against Virginia Tech (13-for-33 passing for 58 yards with two interceptions). His relative inexperience (13 college starts) and inability to beat out predecessor Marquise Williams, who wasn’t drafted, loom as major questions. Trubisky lined up almost exclusively out of the shotgun for an offense that relied heavily on run-pass options, so he will have some significant adjustments to the pro game.
2. DESHAUN WATSON, CLEMSON 6-2, 221
No quarterback in this draft will beat this two-time Heisman Trophy finalist on intangibles. The Tigers went 28-2 over the last two years with Watson at the controls, reaching the national championship game both times. He threw for 420 yards and three TDs to beat Alabama in the finale last season, giving Clemson its first national title since 1981. Watson’s leadership is renowned, and he’s also extremely tough — he played the final game of his freshman campaign against archrival South Carolina with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. He’s a threat with his arm (8,702 passing yards and 76 TD passes since 2015) and legs (1,734 yards and 21 TDs on the ground over the same span). But like all of this draft’s prospects, Watson has his warts. He can be careless with the ball (30 interceptions since 2015), and his downfield accuracy is often lacking. Having a dominant college wideout such as Mike Williams also erased plenty of mistakes. Like Trubisky, Watson typically lined up in the shotgun and operated a zone-read attack that often exposed him with designed runs. He must now prove he can handle a pro playbook.
3. PATRICK MAHOMES, TEXAS TECH 6-2, 225
His gifts and flaws have elicited rampant comparisons to Brett Favre. The son of the longtime Major League Baseball reliever of the same name, Mahomes evidently inherited ridiculous arm strength from his father. He can rifle a pass into a small window or over a defense off his back foot, while falling away from the throw or across his body while sprinting to the left. Sometimes, he even pulls off an uncanny completion when violating several cardinal rules of quarterbacking mechanics and could wind up rivaling the Detroit Lions’ Matthew Stafford for connecting with unreal offplatform passes. The Red Raiders playbook didn’t put Mahomes on any kind of pitch count, either. He averaged nearly 47 attempts per game over the last two seasons and totaled 9,705 yards and 77 TDs. Mahomes also tied an NCAA record by throwing for 734 yards in one game. And he knew how to take advantage of the spacing Texas Tech’s spread scheme provided, running for 22 scores since 2015. However, like any gunslinger, Mahomes’ fearlessness can too often skew to recklessness, and he’ll have to break a lot of the bad habits he formed in college. And though his draft stock has surged in recent weeks, he might actually be best served to redshirt for two years as he reprograms himself to operate an NFL offense.
4. DESHONE KIZER, NOTRE DAME 6-4, 233
He likely would have been a first-round pick last year, along with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and wideout Will Fuller, Kizer’s former Irish teammates. But a disappointing 2016 season and failure to re-establish momentum at the scouting combine or his pro day could drop Kizer into the second day of the draft. It’s not entirely his fault. Besides Stanley and Fuller, the NFL raided Notre Dame’s offense of two other starters a year ago. The Irish defense also was quite poor in 2016, yet seven of the team’s eight losses were by just one score. And despite the adversity, Kizer still routinely flashed the dual-threat ability that helped him lead the school to the Fiesta Bowl in 2015 as a redshirt freshman. His arm talent, nose for the end zone as a runner (18 rushing TDs in college) and NFL size make him a bit of a poor man’s Cam Newton. Kizer makes excellent use of pump fakes but must improve his anticipation and decision-making. And he will enter the pros having to prove he can deliver at crunchtime while operating a traditional offense. And though he’s only 21 and never seemed to wilt under the pressure of a glaring spotlight in South Bend, Kizer wasn’t exactly helped by a tepid endorsement from Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly.
5. NATHAN PETERMAN, PITTSBURGH 6-2, 226
He lost his job to Joshua Dobbs at Tennessee but made the most of his opportunity after enrolling at Pitt. Peterman has a nice release, good pocket presence and vision, plus better-than-average mobility. And, unlike many of his peers, he actually worked under center regularly for the Panthers in a pro-style attack. The high point came last November, when he threw for 308 yards and five TDs to outduel Watson in Death Valley while handing Clemson its only defeat of the season. Peterman’s physical attributes aren’t breathtaking, but he should make a quicker leap to the pro level than most and might find himself vying for a No. 2 job very quickly and perhaps competing for a starting gig down the road.
6. DAVIS WEBB, CALIFORNIA 6-5, 229
He had quite a strange college career, unseating Baker Mayfield as Texas Tech’s starting quarterback in 2013 before losing the job to Mahomes midway through the subsequent season. Webb eventually transferred to Cal and thrived in the same “Bear Raid” offense that helped make Jared Goff the No. 1 overall pick of the 2016 draft. Webb passed for 4,295 yards and 37 TDs last year and ran for six scores. He shows good touch from the pocket but has a tendency to lock onto his primary read. He is not a remarkable athlete and has benefited heavily from spread concepts. Goff ’s struggle to adapt to the NFL likely won’t help Webb’s case.
7. JOSHUA DOBBS, TENNESSEE 6-3, 216
Could he be the 2017 version of Dak Prescott as a middle-rounder who enters the NFL with measured expectations but succeeds when given a chance? Dobbs helped resurrect the Vols to prominence. A threat as a passer and a thrower, he joined Prescott, Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel as the only Southeastern Conference quarterbacks with 50 career TD passes and 30 rushing scores. He shows courage when standing in the pocket, though he’s also quick to leave it. And there’s no doubting the smarts of an aerospace engineering major. Dobbs will have to polish his accuracy, and he’s another prospect who must transition from a gimmicky college attack.
8. BRAD KAAYA, MIAMI (FLA.) 6-4, 214
No one has ever thrown for more yards as a Hurricane, a pretty impressive bullet point for Kaaya’s résumé. He is comfortable in a pro-style offense, sees the field well and brings plenty of toughness and smarts to the table. Kaaya’s passion for the game could help compensate for an average arm and limited athleticism. If he’s unable to stick as a fringe starter, he might still be able to work for many years holding a clipboard.
9. CHAD KELLY, MISSISSIPPI 6-2, 224
The nephew of Hall of Famer Jim Kelly, he has a rifle for an arm and ability to make rare throws into tight spots. Chad Kelly performed well in 2015 for the Rebels, posting 4,042 passing yards and 31 TDs. Unfortunately, to call his off-field reputation “spotty” might be kind given he was kicked out of Clemson and barred from the scouting combine because of various transgressions. Kelly also has suffered a long list of injuries, including two torn ACLs — the second ended his senior season prematurely — and just had wrist surgery, following after a truncated pro day, that will sideline him for several months.