QUESTION-AND-ANSWER SESSION
After months of anticipation and countless mock drafts, the actual NFL draft has arrived. Here’s a six-pack of questions the USA TODAY Sports NFL staff most anticipates getting answers to beginning Thursday.
1. Which team has the most potential to pull a surprise in the first round and cause everyone’s mock draft to hit the shredder?
Cleveland Browns: Even if Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett is selected with the No. 1 pick as expected, Cleveland still could have a surprise or two in store. With five of the first 65 picks, the Browns have the arsenal and disposition to move around in a draft the organization has long targeted as integral to its rebuilding process. At No. 12, passing on a quarterback would cause quite a stir. But with the first pick in the second round, Cleveland always could jump up into a late first-round pick for a quarterback, which would be all the more appealing given the fifthyear option it would have on a potentially successful signal-caller.
San Francisco 49ers: Despite this draft class seemingly running short on consensus, the 49ers have been linked heavily to Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas. Yet new general manager John Lynch could continue the organization’s outside-the-box thinking by looking in a different direction, because the 49ers’ needs are widespread. Going with a quarterback or trading the pick would be the most dramatic moves, but even selecting a different defender — such as LSU’s Jamal Adams or Ohio State’s Malik Hooker — would have a ripple effect on the rest of the first round. Tennessee Titans: Finding another weapon for Marcus Mariota in the aerial attack is perhaps Tennessee’s most important task, yet few pass catchers in this class seem like a natural fit at No. 5. But what if the Titans see corresponding value in any of the players — perhaps wide receivers John Ross, Mike Williams or Corey Davis, as well as tight end O.J. Howard — and don’t want to risk a run on those players before they pick again at No. 18? Defensive players are expected to dominate the top of the draft, but Tennessee could alter that outlook. Carolina Panthers: GM Dave Gettleman has made his priorities known by taking a front-seven player with his top pick in three of his four drafts with Carolina. But the Panthers have to find a way to reconfigure their offense after Ron Rivera said quarterback Cam Newton’s contributions in the running game would be scaled back. LSU running back Leonard Fournette would be appealing at No. 8, but Carolina could surprise by taking Florida State’s Dalvin Cook or Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey in a slot higher than most would expect.
Arizona Cardinals: With Carson Palmer back in the fold, Arizona has to decide whether it wants to pull the trigger on a successor at No. 13 or at a later stage in the draft. Such a move by the Cardinals could raise concern for teams in the back half of the first round hoping for a quarterback to slide to them. Having Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes or Clemson’s Deshaun Watson come off the board at this stage would serve as a potential pivot point for the rest of the draft. — Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz
2. Is this the year running backs break the recent trend, and there’s a run on that position in the first round?
Are running backs finally ... back?
The position has suffered significant devaluation in recent years as more teams have deployed backfield committees and become unwilling to expend high picks on players who absorb so much punishment and wear out quickly. In the last four drafts, three tailbacks were selected in the first round.
But the pendulum might be changing direction.
It’s possible four backs could go in Round 1, something that hasn’t occurred since the vaunted 2008 class produced five first-rounders.
This year’s group features ability, variety and depth. LSU’s Leon- ard Fournette is widely perceived as the premier prospect, and his physical style and speed have drawn comparisons to Adrian Peterson. Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey, who has seen has stock steadily rise during the predraft process, is an accomplished runner, receiver and returner whose quickness and ability to run routes from the backfield or slot distinguish him. Dalvin Cook, Florida State’s all-time leading rusher, is also highly effective in the passing game and would plug nicely into just about any pro offense. Alvin Kamara wasn’t a workhorse at Tennessee, but his skill set is just a notch below McCaffrey’s and could sneak him into the first round. — Nate Davis
3. The New England Patriots don’t pick until the third round. Will that change before the draft starts, and does it matter?
Leave it to the Patriots to loom over the first round even without having a pick.
The reasons they do are backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and cornerback Malcolm Butler. Their future homes could loom as large over the first round as those of any of the top draft prospects.
Garoppolo is the most intriguing. The feeling from reports out of New England — though does anybody really know what coach Bill Belichick is thinking? — is the Patriots will not trade him. We all want to be Tom Brady, but he is 39 and, no matter how much organic food he eats, that increases the likelihood he could be injured.
The Browns won’t offer the No. 1 pick, but with the No. 12 pick and a slew of other selections to offer, they could make one last pitch that they hope is too good to refuse.
The Houston Texans, who will stare longingly at Tony Romo in the CBS television booth all season, will surely try to remind Belichick that it would be nice to help his old friend, Bill O’Brien. The Texans have the No. 25 pick, so they would have to throw in some live bodies to make Belichick even pick up the phone.
But why make the Texans a bigger force in the AFC? Belichick knows they might be only a good quarterback away from being a serious contender in the conference. And why take all those draft picks from Cleveland when it is clear the Patriots are already built for this season?
Butler, the hero of the Super Bowl win against the Seattle Seahawks after the 2014 season, has signed his restricted free agent deal. That means the Patriots are free to work out a trade.
The New Orleans Saints have shown the most interest and have two picks in the first round, so keep your eye on their second selection at No. 32, which originally belonged to New England before the Brandin Cooks deal last month. Just maybe the Patriots will wind up owning the pick they began this offseason with.
— Chris D’Amico
4. Will the Texans draft a quarterback in the first two rounds?
They haven’t done it since Rick Smith became GM in 2006. But there are reasons to think that might change soon, though none of the quarterbacks in this class is likely to step in immediately as a starter.
Tom Savage, a fourth-round pick in 2014, is the odds-on favorite to start in Week 1. He is accurate, has a strong arm and knows coach Bill O’Brien’s complicated system. If the Texans can get Savage to limit mistakes, play to their defense and stay healthy — which has been a problem — they’ll have a chance to compete.
Savage hasn’t proved he can be a long-term NFL starter, though. And he’s entering the last year of his contract. It’s hard to imagine the Texans going into the season with just Savage and Brandon Weeden on the roster.
None of the quarterbacks remaining on the free agent market (Jay Cutler, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, et al.) is really a fit for the Houston offense. And a trade for a veteran QB seems highly unlikely.
The Texans own the 25th and 57th overall picks. It was odd they didn’t send top brass to any of the potential first-round QB prospects’ pro days, nor was there a documented visit or workout before word leaked of Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes coming to team headquarters. That might just mean the Texans have been going out of their way to keep things quiet.
A lot of misinformation flies this time of year, but file this away: One NFL coach who’s done homework on all of the top quarterbacks says the word is O’Brien absolutely loves cannon-armed Mahomes. O’Brien wouldn’t be alone — based on conversations I’ve had, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Mahomes is one of the first two quarterbacks taken.
No matter whom the target might be in Round 1, the next question: Can the Texans wait until the 25th pick to get him?
— Tom Pelissero
5. Which player who will be in the draft’s green room will have to come back for Day 2?
The first-round free fall happens for someone every year, and it’s always riveting television when it’s a quarterback sweating in the draft room. Aaron Rodgers’ slide in 2005 was legendary, though his fall landed him in Green Bay, and that worked out quite well. In 2014, Johnny Manziel’s drop was Internet gold before Cleveland picked him at No. 22. In 2013, Geno Smith left Radio City Music Hall after the first round without being picked.
This year, quarterback DeShone Kizer might want to pack two suits when he heads to Philadelphia, just in case he’s stuck waiting in the green room after 32 players are picked Thursday.
By most projections, Kizer is a borderline first-round pick. If there is a run on quarterbacks Thursday and more than three passers get picked, Kizer very well could be the fourth (or fifth). Others seem to be rising into firstround consideration, notably California’s Davis Webb, and the concerns about Kizer are significant, given an uneven résumé in two years as Notre Dame’s starter.
Kizer isn’t lacking for confidence, as the NFL learned last week after his enlightening interview with USA TODAY Sports in which he said, “Why can’t I be the greatest quarterback to ever play?”
He might have to endure draftnight heartbreak before he can start to prove it.
— Lindsay H. Jones
6. While pressure is on all 32 general managers, which ones are feeling the most pressure with this draft?
Start in Cleveland. The Browns have smartly amassed assets, including the first and 12th overall picks and five selections in the top 65. But at some point you have to turn those selections into good players.
Until that happens, there will be heavy skepticism within the NFL about whether Cleveland’s analytics-driven front office — executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown, chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta and staff — can build a team and not just accumulate ample resources to do so.
Let’s face it, plenty of people in the league are rooting for the Browns to fail. It would be proof that old school scouting is still the lifeblood of pro football, even though every smart team is incorporating many of these same concepts into their operations.
Among others who come to mind:
Saints executive vice president/GM Mickey Loomis has two first-round picks (Nos. 11 and 32) at a time when Drew Brees is in the last year of his contract and coach Sean Payton seems to be on a year-to-year plan. This feels like a critical juncture for everyone.
New Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott has been granted significant power in the organization and made a ton of changes, so where does that leave GM Doug Whaley? The possibility of taking a quarterback at No. 10 ups the ante.
Smith, the Texans’ executive vice president/GM, signed an extension last summer that runs through 2020. How can there not be pressure when you haven’t stabilized the quarterback position and just gave up a second-round pick to get rid of Brock Osweiler and his salary?
The Washington Redskins haven’t replaced GM Scot McCloughan, who was fired last month. Team President Bruce Allen has always had more authority than many realized, but at least for this draft, he figures to have more accountability, too.
— Tom Pelissero