USA TODAY US Edition

It’s best to avoid instant analysis of picks

- Nancy Armour narmour@usatoday.com USA TODAY Sports

Rational thinking is in short supply this week.

For the next few days, there will be wild statements made with no basis in fact. Knee-jerk responses that will be cringewort­hy in the not-too-distant future. Questionab­le decisions by some otherwise very intelligen­t people.

Yes, it’s the NFL draft! What, you thought I was referring to something else?

It’s no secret fans lose their objectivit­y when it comes to their favorite team, and there’s no better example of that than the NFL draft. Despite all of the workouts, all of the scouting, all of the evaluation­s, it is little more than a crapshoot.

Sure, Myles Garrett, Leonard Fournette or Mitchell Trubisky might turn out to be as good as advertised, a player who can carry a franchise for the better part of a decade. Taywan Taylor and Jordan Morgan might become the latest small-school gems unearthed in the middle rounds.

But there’s no way to know. Not yet, anyway.

If past years have taught us anything, it’s that where you were drafted is no guarantee of success. Just ask Ryan Leaf and Tony Mandarich, No. 2 overall picks who can lay equal claim to the title of biggest bust ever.

Or Hall of Famer Shannon

to stoke the passion and adrenaline like it’s November.

“This is excitement,” said Alexander Brown, dressed in a San Francisco 49ers shirt and cap.

Brown came down from New York with a few of his pals, and their predraft banter provided a glimpse of what it must be like to hang out with this crew to watch games on Sundays. One is a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, the other pulls for Washington.

While Brown pondered the options the 49ers would have (they ended up trading the No. 2 overall pick to the Chicago Bears, who used it on quarterbac­k Mitchell Trubisky, and picked LSU defensive end Solomon Thomas at No. 3), Gregory Roberts, the Steelers fan, gave him grief.

“He thinks Joe Montana and Jerry Rice are walking through that door,” he said. “They’re not.”

This is NFL magic. Men have traveled to spend an evening watching a draft, debating the merits of their teams. Kids are roaming the grounds like it’s a holiday. Families are hanging out in full force. While most of the fans are wearing Eagles gear, many teams around the NFL are represente­d.

It was a midoffseas­on festival, with all the standard NFL stuff to do. There’s a mini-museum with Hall of Fame busts and Super Bowl rings. There’s an autograph stage and, of course, a merchandis­ing tent. There’s even a zip line, which some fans might have been prompted to try in protesting their team’s picks.

“I had to come over for this,” said Frank Segaline, a Philadelph­ia native who works on a nearby constructi­on site. “I’ve been watching them build this site for over three weeks.”

Hey, it wasn’t perfect. The Parkway and surroundin­g streets have been closed for three weeks. Traffic congestion was a mess. The Super Bowl-type security measures resulted in detours and long lines.

With all that, though, it was rather peaceful before sunset — contrary to the reputation of rowdy Philadelph­ia fans.

“I’m surprised there’s no heckling with the Cowboys fans,” Fiordimond­l said.

Shoot, even the weather cooperated. The NFL took a chance in staging the draft outdoors, but after rain on consecutiv­e days earlier in the week it was a balmy (OK, muggy) 80 degrees.

Chances are the draft will be staged at another site next year, with the NFL having succeeded in developing it into a major marketing event that attracts bidding cities as it does for Super Bowls.

“The intention is to move it around,” NFL Commission­er Roger Goodell told USA TODAY Sports.

Goodell said there were representa­tives from 14 cities in Philadelph­ia, gathering informatio­n that they could use in crafting their own bids to host the draft.

But Goodell — whose role in the TV show is to introduce the picks and typically greet them on stage with a handshake or even a bro hug — was more in the moment Thursday night.

“You can see that this is going to be an event that will make Philadelph­ia proud,” Goodell said.

Yet Philly being Philly, there were suggestion­s for Goodell.

“Where’s the band?” Segaline said, standing near the VIP section as NFL Films music played. “There should be some type of entertainm­ent, like a concert. Why not? It just doesn’t make sense not to do that.”

That sentiment surely reflected the spirit of the draft. There’s always something to secondgues­s.

FOLLOW NFL COLUMNIST JARRETT BELL @JarrettBel­l for analysis and breaking news from the gridiron.

 ?? BRETT COOMER, AP ?? Early reactions to the Texans’ selection of J.J. Watt in 2011 proved way off base.
BRETT COOMER, AP Early reactions to the Texans’ selection of J.J. Watt in 2011 proved way off base.
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