Power Five teams’ strength of schedule lacks muscle
Even if only entering its fourth year, the early stages of the College Football Playoff era has hammered home one fact: Strength of schedule matters.
Teams can’t necessarily control their own conference slate. But the non-conference slate? While games scheduled years in advance might not look as appealing when kickoff rolls around, it’s in this area that a title contender can impress the selection committee by matching wits with a premier opponent.
So which teams from the Power Five ranks will face the easiest non-conference schedule this fall?
1. WASHINGTON
Schedule: at Rutgers (9/1), vs. Montana (9/9), vs. Fresno State (9/16)
This non-conference slate will hurt and not help Washington if push comes to shove in early December — if the Huskies are compared to a similar team with a better out-of-conference strength of schedule, for example.
2. COLORADO
Schedule: vs. Colorado State in Denver (9/1), vs. Texas State (9/9), vs. Northern Colorado (9/16)
Colorado State won’t be easy, but Colorado’s non-conference schedule won’t tell us anything about the Buffaloes’ ability to defend last season’s Pac-12 South Division title.
3. KANSAS
Schedule: vs. Southeast Missouri State (9/2), vs. Central Michigan (9/9), at Ohio (9/16)
Maybe things are relative. Kansas might not be better than Central Michigan and Ohio, in other words. This is still a flimsy schedule for a Power Five team.
4. ARIZONA
Schedule: vs. Northern Arizona (9/2), vs. Houston (9/9), at Texas-El Paso (9/15)
Houston is set to take a step back. NAU and UTEP are snooze-worthy matchups to kill time and pad the win total before the Wild- cats begin Pac-12 play.
5. BAYLOR
Schedule: vs. Liberty (9/2), vs. Texas-San Antonio (9/9), at Duke (9/16)
It is Baylor, after all. The only commendable part of the Bears’ three non-league games is that they play at Duke. It’s a small victory. But this will be good for Baylor’s win total.
6. MISSOURI
Schedule: vs. Missouri State (9/2), vs. Purdue (9/16), vs. Idaho (10/21), at Connecticut (10/28)
This will help Missouri rebound after finishing last in the SEC East in 2016. But for the Tigers, any national recognition — if it comes at all — will have to be gained via wins in league play.
7. MISSISSIPPI
Schedule: vs. South Alabama (9/2), vs. Tennessee-Martin (9/9), at California (9/16), vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (11/11)
The Rebels’ road trip to Berkeley is one of those games that looks far better on paper than it will in person. (And it doesn’t look that good, honestly.) The remaining three non-SEC games are a joke. 8. ARKANSAS Schedule: vs. Florida A&M (8/31), vs. TCU (9/9), vs. New Mexico State (9/30), vs. Coastal Carolina (11/4)
The only thing saving Arkansas from a spot far higher on this list is that home game against a TCU team that should be vastly improved after an average 2016 season. But Florida A&M is in the Football Championship Subdivision; Coastal Carolina is transitioning into the Sun Belt; and New Mexico State is the longest-suffering program in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
9. OREGON STATE
Schedule: at Colorado State (8/26), vs. Portland State (9/2), vs. Minnesota (9/9)
The Beavers’ opener marks the christening of Colorado State’s shiny new stadium, so who knows what might happen there. But Portland State’s a laugher, and Minnesota will be one of the bottom three teams in the Big Ten.
10. MISSISSIPPI STATE
Schedule: vs. Charleston Southern (9/2), at Louisiana Tech (9/9), vs. Brigham Young (10/14), vs. Massachusetts (11/4)
Two things: Louisiana Tech should be pretty good; BYU is never an easy out. Still, Mississippi State’s non-conference schedule doesn’t feature one team from a Power Five league.