Populist movement in Europe is down, not out
Despite French vote, forces of change are powerful, experts say
Centrist Emmanuel Macron’s landslide win in France’s presidential election is a fresh sign European voters are turning their backs on the political populism exemplified by Britain’s Brexit and Donald Trump’s election, but the specter of far-right Marine Le Pen will continue to haunt a divided Europe, experts say.
Macron swamped Le Pen on Sunday, 66%-34%. The margin, wider than polls had projected, is a remarkable achievement for a politician who has never held elected office and whose En Marche! (On the Move) party was formed only a year ago with the aim of ending decades of dominance by France’s mainstream parties on the left and right.
While Macron’s decisive victory may have dealt European populism another defeat after recent losses in Austria and the Netherlands, analysts say, the power of nationalistic appeals that oppose globalization, the European Union and liberal immigration policies should not be underestimated.
“This is an important moment, especially when we remember the fatalistic prediction made after Trump’s victory that said: ‘After Brexit, after Trump, the next one will be Marine Le Pen,’ ” said Pierre Haski, a French political analyst and commentator. But “it would be a mistake to consider this the end of the populist tide.”
Whether Macron and other European leaders can blunt the movement will depend on their ability to address the concerns that have given rise to anti-establishment fervor: weak economic growth and high unemployment blamed on globalization and a flood of migrants entering Europe over the past two years.
Marion Amiot, a senior economist at Britain-based consultancy Oxford Economics, questioned in a research note Monday whether Macron would be able to unite a nation where — like Trump supporters in the U.S. — rural working-class voters remain disillusioned with the status quo: immigration, poor employment prospects and the loss of national identity to European Union bureaucrats who set policy for the 28-member alliance in Brussels.
“Europe breathed another sigh of relief (Sunday) as its second largest economy turned its back on Eurosceptic populism more decisively than the polls had predicted,” she wrote, but she warned: “If anything, the 34% of votes (Le Pen) captured underlines how deeply rooted the French malaise of high unemployment and slow economic growth is. Bridging the divide between the winners and the losers of globalization will be a sizeable challenge for the new tenant at the Élysée Palace,” where the president of France resides.
Governments in Hungary, Poland and Turkey have lurched to the right in recent elections. In Germany, an anti-immigration nationalist political party, Alternative for Germany, has tried to gain momentum after victories in state elections several months ago. More recently, however, its support has fallen ahead of a federal election in September, when Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeking re-election.
In Merkel’s favor is the fact that she is presiding over a booming economy, Europe’s strongest, and a low unemployment rate, which help defuse a backlash against her welcome mat for 1 million migrants.
Former secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned in a USA TODAY interview that the populist movement may have suffered a defeat Sunday but is still a major force for change.
“I do really believe these populists are changing the character of the politics just by being there ... even if the candidates aren’t winning,” Rice said.
“It would be a mistake to consider this the end of the populist tide.” Pierre Haski, French political analyst and commentator