Apple could alter reality
Next iPhone may give the physical world an extra kick
The reality is augmented reality is slowly seeping into the everyday use of technology by millions of Americans. Now it just needs an iPhone power boost. Last year’s phenomenon of
Pokemon Go — one of the mostdownloaded apps in 2016 — and the popularity of Snapchat illustrated the potential of this technology that overlays digital images onto the physical world (a park bench, your best friend, a pet) to put mobile games and social networking into overdrive. The next iteration, as envisioned by Google, Facebook and others, could make it more practical for millions of consumers and businesses.
Apple, which will start its annual Worldwide Developers Conference in San Jose on Monday, may soon join the party.
Imagine this: You point your smartphone camera at a restaurant, and a restaurant review pops up over the photo. That’s Google’s vision for its yet-to-be released Lens technology. Or you could figure out how to fix a light switch by receiving instructions that overlaid your real-life project as you completed the task. That could be a task for Microsoft Hololens.
The next version of iPhone, likely to debut in September or October, could include augmented reality, giving the technology its latest momentum. “Apple is the best-placed of all major tech companies to drive mobile AR,” says Tim Merel, an analyst at market researcher Digi-Capital. He pegs the market at $60 billion and 1 billion users by 2021.
“We believe AR in the next iPhone will be a turning point for the broader AR industry,” says Gene Munster, head of research at Loup Ventures. The longtime Apple analyst predicts the company will sell more than 100 million augmented units of the forthcoming iPhone, sometimes called X or 10, and says it will go mainstream when 500 million units or more are sold.
That’s “still a few years away,” Munster says.
Apple declined comment for this story, but its leader has made no secret of its interest in aug- mented reality — sometimes called distorted or mixed reality.
“I regard (augmented reality) as a big idea like the smartphone,” Apple CEO Tim Cook told The In
dependent newspaper during a trip to the U.K. in February. “The smartphone is for everyone. We don’t have to think the iPhone is about a certain demographic or country or vertical market. It’s for everyone. I think AR is that big. It’s huge. I get excited because of the things that could be done that could improve a lot of lives.”
Interest in augmented reality is keen among iPhone users, particularly Millennials, according to a survey of 502 Americans in March by Loup Ventures. Of those who plan to purchase the 10th-anniversary edition of the iPhone, 26% indicated an interest in AR features — 34% among those 18 to 29 years old.
That youth interest could be a stumbling block when it comes to eyewear, one of the prime vehicles for using the technology.
Glasses are pricey, and consumers have rejected clunky headsets such as the failed Google Glass. Plus, a majority of the under-40 crowd does not wear corrective eyewear.
An iPhone with built-in augmented reality could qualify as a wow moment for the technology, which has slowly gained moderate use and awareness, propelled by the emergence of Microsoft HoloLens, Pokemon Go, start-up Magic Leap, Google’s Tango platform and Snapchat.
The technology is likely to enhance experiences in specially tailored environments such as amusement parks and museums. In the everyday world, things should evolve — albeit glacially — as smartphones drive AR’s use.
At its developers conference in May, Google unfurled Lens, an AR feature that CEO Sundar Pichai calls an “inflection point with vision.” It relies on machine learning to turn a camera into a search box, so, for example, a consumer could identify a type of flower by viewing it through the camera.
In April, Facebook underscored its intent to blend the physical and digital worlds through AR lenses by opening its camera effects platform to software developers. “We’re making the camera the first augmented reality platform,” Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said at the F8 developers conference in San Jose. That is years away: For now, Facebook’s camera effects are confined to doctoring selfies with goofy masks, frames and filters.
Tech giants plow money into what they expect will be one of the next big leaps in how we communicate. In the first quarter of this year, companies bought 34 operations that specialize in artificial intelligence, the key component in augmented reality. That was more than twice that of the same period a year ago, according to market researcher CB Insights.