Odds favor usual suspects to reach playoff
Likely automatic qualifiers? Busch, Harvick head list
Twelve races, nine winners, one asterisk.
With the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series reaching the midpoint of the regular season Sunday at Dover International Speedway, numerous historical race winners have yet to clinch playoff berths by winning. Who is in a more perilous position — those drivers or the group holding transfer spots on points who are not gluttonous winners — depends not only on their overall performance, but also the other unexpected events that happen in a racing season.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr., whose first career Cup win came at Talladega Superspeedway, was one of those surprise winners, though his Roush Fenway Racing program had been improving. Occasional winner Ryan Newman, who claimed a victory at Phoenix Raceway on a worn-tire gamble, was another, as was Richard Childress Racing teammate Austin Dillon, whose fuel-mileage strategy led to a triumph last weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
So who among the non-victorious is most likely to secure a playoff berth and ease the pressure in the next 14 races? Just 16 spots are available for the 10-race playoff, and eight remain, open to race winners or those highest in points among the top 16 come cutoff time in September. Five drivers to keep an eye on, beginning with Sunday’s AAA 400 (1 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1):
Kyle Busch: The 2015 series champion had won three races by this time last year, and Joe Gibbs Racing ’s 0-for-2017 streak among its four-car contingent figures to be pretty annoying by now. Whether his postrace interview mike drop after one question at Charlotte — after finishing second to Dillon — is a reflection of that is unclear. Five top-five and six top-10 finishes have him snugly positioned at fifth in points, but he figures to nab at least one victory to ensure a postseason spot. Kevin Harvick: Stewart- Haas Racing teammate Kurt Busch grabbed the team’s first win with Ford in the Daytona 500, but the 2014 series champion seems likely to snag his own eventually after posting four topfives and seven top-10s. Recent performance suggests it could happen soon, despite a loosewheel problem and losing positions to fuel gamblers in an eighth-place run from the pole at Charlotte. He’s fourth in points.
Joey Logano: The Team Penske driver has been to victory lane, but a postrace laser inspection station found a rear suspension infraction at Richmond International Raceway, negating the right to use the win for playoff entry. Tenth in the standings, Logano has won five, six and three races from 2014 to 2016, respectively. There should be more ahead, though he has crashed out of two of his last three races.
Denny Hamlin: There was encouragement in JGR’s collective performance in the Coca-Cola 600, as the entire contingent, including rookie Daniel Suarez, raced near the top of the leaderboard, with Kyle Busch finishing second, Matt Kenseth fourth, Hamlin fifth and Suarez 11th. It was the second top-five of the season for the 29-time Cup win- ner, so he’ll take it. Eleventh in points, Hamlin is in the anxiety zone if more Chris Buescher (Pocono Raceway, August 2016), Aric Almirola (Daytona International Speedway, July 2014), AJ Allmendinger (Watkins Glen International, August 2014) anomalies happen this summer.
Ryan Blaney: The secondyear full-timer feels close to breaking through with what would be a first career win. The Ford camp has been consistently fast, and Blaney is 12th in points but seventh in laps led, meaning he has a chance to put his Team Penske-aligned Wood Brothers No. 21 in the playoffs with a win or sustained good performances.