Stay or go? No easy answer
Some prospects bank on extra time in college will pay off nicely in pros
Stay or go? Ivan Rabb chose to stay — in college, that is — despite being projected as a lottery pick in last summer’s NBA draft. The 6-10 University of California forward was undoubtedly the most NBAready player to delay his professional career, while his former teammate, Jaylen Brown, became a top-three pick. This time, Rabb barely projects as a first-rounder in what draft analyst Jay Bilas calls the “most freshman-loaded class ever.” As a result, Rabb likely will lose millions of dollars.
But in a one-and-done age, Rabb sees the long-term payoff superseding the short-term pay cut in staying at Cal for his sophomore year.
“I thought I needed it. I thought it was very mature for me to go back,” Rabb said at the NBA draft combine in Chicago, noting his tenacity on the glass and ability to stretch the floor can translate right away to the pros. “The plan is to stick in the league for a long time, not get there as soon as possible. So I feel like I made the best decision for me. I got better.
“Staying in school, I changed my mentality a lot. I got way more mature off the court in terms of dealing with situations — learning to say no, knowing how to work hard. Now, I’m on a whole other level.”
Oregon’s Dillon Brooks, who returned to Eugene after a breakout All-American campaign as a sophomore, similarly saw his stock fall over the last year de- spite spearheading Oregon to its first Final Four since 1939.
“It’s just more fuel to the fire,” said Brooks, a projected late second-round pick, about criticism of some of his shortcomings in a more loaded draft class. “I say to myself all the time: There are guys who are more athletic, longer, taller. I just try to find a way to be the best. I think going to the Final Four, two Elite Eights, shows something.”
Rabb and Brooks are not alone in making the difficult decision to stay in school. College coaches will point to a player such as the Sacramento Kings’ Buddy Hield, who decided to stay for his final year of college eligibility at Oklahoma and became the national player of the year and reached the Final Four before being taken sixth overall in 2016’s draft. He averaged 10.6 points per game for the Kings and New Orleans Pelicans in 2016-17.
For an All-American such as Justin Jackson of North Carolina, though, winning a national championship made his decision easy. Jackson, a projected top-20 pick who benefited from the exposure of Final Fours as a sophomore and a junior, said of his draft mentality: “Whoever decides to take a chance on me, I will try to not make them look like a fool.”
A lot of borderline NBA players realize that visibility is a crucial element in reaching their childhood dreams. That’s partly why Gonzaga’s Nigel Williams- Goss, coming off a national title game appearance, opted to leave after his junior year. Williams- Goss, who transferred from Washington to Gonzaga to be on a winning program and is the same age (22) as most four-year players, was an All-American in 2016-17 but could go undrafted.
“Not too many people can say they played in the national championship game,” said WilliamsGoss, making the point that it will be fresh in scouts’ heads. “College is a high level, and now we’re stepping it up. The pros are the best in the world. That’s why I think it’s so important to be mentally and physically ready, because these are grown men we’ll be playing against.”
Yet it’s not just about life maturity and developing as a player as reasons to hold off on a paycheck. What about the college glory? The Charlotte Hornets’ Frank Kaminsky, who had just led Wisconsin to an unexpected Final Four run in 2014, famously said the NBA looked “flat-out boring ” compared to being a star on campus at Wisconsin.
Bilas notes it’s not always a success story for those who stay and it’s extremely difficult to turn money down for players who are less interested in getting their college degree than supporting their family. Bilas said the NBA draft continues to get “younger and younger” and credited that trend, partially, to the rookie wage scale. Due to the new collective bargaining agreement, rookie contracts are set to increase by 45% over the next three years.
“I don’t know that it’s ever been the best college players turning into the best pro players,” Bilas said. “But it used to be that if you were an All-American in college, you could (parlay) that into NBA (contracts). A lot more would shake out and (carry over) with older players in the draft.”
While recognizing draft picks are based largely on potential, former South Carolina standout Sindarius Thornwell felt a college résumé with four years of experience should speak for something in terms of giving an NBA team an immediate boost.
“You have rookies, freshmen, 18-year-olds in the draft who never scored 18 points in a game. They probably average 10 points, and they go top five,” said Thornwell, a projected early secondround pick. “I think defense gives me an advantage in this draft.”