TEAMS MUST BE CAUTIOUS ABOUT MARLEAU, OTHERS
While NHL teams will look to boost their rosters starting Saturday in free agency, the crop of available players is lacking in difference-making talent. That means there figures to be a number of questionable signings. Five players teams should be wary of overpaying: Winger Patrick Marleau: He remains very useful and durable. But he will be 38 at the start of the season and shouldn’t get a multiyear deal with the expectation that he will be a top-six forward. The trends he’s exhibiting are common for older players. Marleau finished 106th in points per 60 minutes (1.47) among forwards with at least 1,000 minutes of even-strength ice time, and his per-game point production and shot volume have fallen in each of the last three seasons. But he is a reliable 20-plus goal scorer, and those are not easy to find. Defenseman Karl Alzner: He is ripe for too many years and dollars. At 28, he is one of the few established free agent defensemen younger than 30 and generally has been healthy in his career. The problem is, in this era of increasing appreciation of mobile defensemen, describing one as “shutdown” often means he is one-dimensional. Alzner’s career high in points is 21; he doesn’t drive possession (46.3% Corsi last season, -7.5% Corsi relative), and he is more of an average shot suppressor than a strong one. He has also logged 655 games in his career. These types of players
don’t age well. Defenseman Michael Stone: The 27-year-old is certain to benefit from a dearth of righthanded defensemen on the market and one still in perceived growth mode. Some will say Stone has been stuck in a bad situation with the Arizona Coyotes for most of his career. Others will say he has been given more opportunities because of said bad situation — and the results have been just OK. The fact is Stone is not a strong defensive player and his possession driving is marginal. General managers will likely be intrigued because of a 36point 2015-16 campaign. But Stone is best suited in a bottompair role.
Winger Thomas Vanek: The wariness for a team that signs Vanek has less to do with his past production and more to do with a long-term commitment. Vanek is talented and has offensive flair, but he is 33 and has seen a decreased amount of ice time in each of the last three seasons. As a complementary player, Vanek is a fine signing. Expecting more will end in disappointment.
Goalie Brian Elliott: Elliott should be considered a tandem goalie. While his even-strength save percentage over the last three years ranks 14th (.928, for goalies with at least 4,000 minutes), Elliott did not seize his chance to be a No. 1 with the Calgary Flames (2.55 goals-against average, .910 save percentage). There are teams searching for goalie help, but it’s unlikely Elliott would be thrust into a fulltime role.