N. KOREA MISSILE PROVOKES U.S.
On 4th of July, nation tests ICBM that could reach Alaska
North Korea’s successful launch of a missile that for the first time could reach the U.S. mainland ratchets up the pressure on President Trump and other world leaders to resolve a growing nuclear crisis with no easy solution.
The test launch came on the Fourth of July, three days before a Group of 20 summit of the world’s major economic powers convenes in Hamburg. The timing is almost certainly not coincidental. North Korea uses such occasions to call attention to its provocative acts — and its test elevates the urgency with which Trump and U.S. allies may feel compelled to respond.
Trump has repeatedly called on China to rein in its neighbor and close ally. China suggested a compromise Tuesday: North Korea would stop missile tests if the U.S. and South Korea scaled back military exercises in the region.
Wednesday evening, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson confirmed the intercontinental ballistic missile launch and called it a “new escalation” of the threat. He vowed to bring additional international pressure on the regime.
The U.S. Army and South Korean military personnel also conducted a joint exercise to counter North Korea’s “destabilizing and unlawful actions” on Wednesday, an Army statement said.
Trump has said he would be willing to try the diplomatic route and agreed to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un face-to-face. Prior diplomatic overtures by two U.S. presidents, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, failed when the North reneged on the agreements.
North Korea appears intent on developing a nuclear-tipped missile that could hit the USA, saying it needs such a deterrent to prevent a U.S. attack aimed at overthrowing the regime.
Trump, who has vowed to stop Kim from developing such a weapon, faces a thorny problem. If he orders an attack on North Korea, he might be able to halt or delay its nuclear and missile programs but could unleash a larger conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea has a 1.2-millionstrong military, and Seoul, the capi-
tal of U.S. ally South Korea, sits 35 miles from the demilitarized zone marking the border. Conventional weapons — rockets, missiles, artillery — could devastate South Korea even if the U.S. military destroyed North Korea’s nuclear sites.
That leaves 25 million South Koreans vulnerable, along with 28,000 U.S. troops stationed there.
“Then you get into a situation where the United States has started a war with large-scale South Korean casualties,” said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London. “Even if you could be assured you take out all the nuclear and missile capabilities, North Korea also has significant conventional retaliatory capabilities. That could turn parts of Seoul into Aleppo (Syria), and that’s the fear.”
Trump has talked tough on North Korea, a sharp contrast from President Obama, who appeared reluctant to further exacerbate tensions verbally. Instead, Obama pushed for international sanctions to squeeze North Korea economically.
Trump has combined bellicose rhetoric with pressure on China to do more to solve the problem, given its leverage over North Korea’s repressive regime, which could collapse without economic help from its giant neighbor. China agreed to help Trump but sees a value in North Korea as a buffer against U.S. troops and a stalwart American ally in the region.
And it worries about a flood of North Koreans crossing into China if the regime collapses.
World leaders agree North Korea is led by a brutal dictator — the third family member since the totalitarian nation’s founding — and Kim is well aware what happens to non-nuclear countries when the United States decides it’s time for regime change, Chalmers said, citing the overthrow of dictators in Egypt, Iraq and Libya in recent years.
That drives North Korea’s desire for a nuclear threat against the U.S. mainland.
By becoming a danger that cannot easily be neutralized, North Korea would ensure a place at the table of nations, despite its status as a rogue state under heavy international sanctions.
“What the president appears to be doing … is giving the impression he might carry out a disarming strike if his demands are not met,” Chalmers said. “And because of who Trump is and how unpredictable he is, it may be increasing the bargaining position of the United States.
“But how do you translate that into a peaceful resolution and not get your bluff called? There’s no easy option. The Chinese don’t like what is happening in North Korea, but they also don’t want regime collapse.”