NATIONAL LEAGUE
The World Series champion Chicago Cubs begin the second half two games under .500 and 51⁄ games 2 behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central. USA TODAY Sports’ Kevin Santo examines an NL field that is trying to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
NL EAST Washington Nationals (52-36) What went right: A lot. The Nationals had the most starters in the All-Star Game, right fielder Bryce Harper posted MVP-caliber numbers and right-hander Max Scherzer has led Washington’s pitching staff in a typical fashion — finishing the first half with the lowest ERA in the majors (2.10) and the second-most strikeouts (173).
What needs attention: The bullpen — still. Expect significant changes soon for the majors’ worst unit.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Nationals have a 91⁄ 2- game lead on the Braves in the East, and, pitching issues aside, their offense hasn’t shown any signs of cooling off — even after major injuries to Adam Eaton and Trea Turner.
Bold prediction: Scherzer wins his second consecutive NL Cy Young Award. This wouldn’t be so bold if Clayton Kershaw wasn’t in the picture, but the two aces have been jockeying back and forth all season. Atlanta Braves (42-45) What went right: Ender Inciarte. The center fielder was his team’s only All-Star representative, thanks to a .302 batting average and 112 hits, a mark that trailed only Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies in the NL.
What needs attention: A rotation lacking a true stopper.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. Opening the second half against the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Dodgers won’t help them in their wild-card pursuit. Bold prediction: The Braves will accelerate their trade activity, starting with outfielder Nick Markakis. Miami Marlins (41-46) What went right: The outfield corners. Left fielder Marcell Ozuna leads the Marlins in every major batting category except home runs, and that spot belongs to right fielder Giancarlo Stanton. What needs attention: Stanton has picked up steam at the plate. He has hit five homers in 36 at-bats in July. Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Nationals are ruining a lot of seasons in the NL East, and the Marlins are nine games out of the wild card. Bold prediction: Christian Yelich
gets back on track. New York Mets (39-47)
What went right: Yoenis Cespedes got hurt. No foul intentions here, but the injury forced manager Terry Collins’ hand and made room for Michael Conforto’s emergence.
What needs attention: The rotation has been doomed by injuries. After finishing as the third-best staff in the NL, right-handers Noah Syndergaard’s and Matt Harvey’s injuries have left the Mets 14th in team ERA.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Mets won’t be healthy in time to make a playoff push.
Bold prediction: Jay Bruce gets traded. A robust, 23-homer first half enhanced his value; by the end of the month, a thirst to contend should make Bruce’s no-trade clause an afterthought. Philadelphia Phillies (29-58) What went right: Just about nothing. The Phillies have the worst record in the majors. What needs attention: Righthander Pat Neshek has the best ERA on the Phillies (1.27) and has surrendered just five earned runs.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Phillies are 21 games out of the wild card. Bold prediction: Neshek gets dealt. There are plenty of contenders who could use a reliable reliever. NL CENTRAL Milwaukee Brewers (50-41) What went right: The long ball. The Brewers led the NL in home runs through the first half, keyed by first baseman Eric Thames’ 23.
What needs attention: Corey Knebel, but in a good way. There’s a lot to like about the Brewers, but don’t lose sight of the fact that Knebel has a 1.70 ERA. Contend or pretend: Contend. The Brewers have a 51⁄ 2- game lead in an NL Central that has looked very vulnerable. Bold prediction: The Brewers win the bidding war for Jose Quintana. Milwaukee seems one more reliable starter away from making a serious run, and they can trade a lot to do so. Chicago Cubs (43-45) What went right: Compared with last year, very little. They ended the first half with left-hander Jon Lester giving up 10 runs in the first inning, and their offense looks anemic.
What needs attention: The starting rotation. Lester leads the group with a 4.25 ERA, and the Cubs can only wait for so long. Contend or pretend: Contend, but they will likely need to win the divi-
sion to do so. We’ll give manager Joe Maddon the benefit of the doubt that the Cubs getting healthy will open the door for a run back to the playoffs. Bold prediction: Kyle Schwarber really does get traded. Simply, they need young pitching — and Schwarber can deliver that. St. Louis Cardinals (43-45) What went right: The rotation. The Cardinals are third in the NL in team ERA, trailing just the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. That’s not bad company.
What needs attention: Run production. The Cardinals get on base more than just two teams in the NL and are 10th in the NL in runs scored.
Contend or pretend: Contend. Like the Cubs, the Cardinals are just 51⁄ 2 games out of first in the division. If they can pick up a middle-of-theorder bat, they could put pressure on the Brewers. Bold prediction: The Cardinals roll the dice before the trade deadline. St. Louis will need to add a source of run production — potentially at a high price — if it wants to compete. Pittsburgh Pirates (42-47) What went right: Felipe Rivero and Andrew McCutchen. The left-hander’s 0.76 ERA is the lowest of any reliever in the majors, and McCutchen recovered from an early slump to lead the Pirates in every major batting category while batting .407 with nine homers and 26 RBI since June. What needs attention: The batters not named McCutchen. The Pirates are 12th in runs in the NL.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Pirates are nine games out of the wild card and seven games out of first in the division.
Bold prediction: McCutchen gets traded. The Pirates aren’t going anywhere this season and will capitalize on his revived value. Cincinnati Reds (39-49) What went right: First baseman Joey Votto and shortstop Zack Cozart, and that’s about it. Votto leads the Reds in hits, home runs, RBI and on-base percentage, while Cozart earned his first All-Star selection.
What needs attention: The pitching staff. Eleven men have started a game, and few can find the strike zone with consistency. Contend or pretend: Pretend. The playoffs are far out of reach. Bold prediction: Cozart is dealt at the trade deadline to a West Coast team. NL WEST Los Angeles Dodgers (61-29)
What went right: Almost everything, but it’s impossible to ignore the fact that first baseman Cody Bellinger is shattering records and leads the Dodgers in home runs and RBI after making an April 25 debut.
What needs attention: The Dodgers entered the break having won 26 of their last 30, and their +163 run differential was the best in NL history heading into the second half.
Contend or pretend: Contend. Obviously. Bold prediction: They land a solid No. 2 or 3 starter, even if it takes sacrificing outfielder Alex Verdugo. Arizona Diamondbacks (53-36) What went right: Zack Greinke’s revival. What needs attention: Left-hander Robbie Ray is dominating teams on the road. He boasts a 1.34 ERA with 73 strikeouts away from Chase Field. Contend or pretend: Contend. The
Diamondbacks are in the unenviable position of playing in a division that features the Dodgers and Rockies. Losses against those teams could hurt, but they’re leading the NL wild-card race.
Bold prediction: Paul Goldschmidt finishes as the Diamondbacks leader in all major batting categories. He’ll need to hold off third baseman Jake Lamb for home runs and RBI, but Goldschimdt is on a tear and doesn’t appear to be slowing down. Colorado Rockies (52-39) What went right: So much, especially after finishing 2016 at 75-87. But the massive gains made by the pitchers must be front and center.
What needs attention: Nolan Arenado. The Rockies third baseman is tied for first in the NL with 70 RBI, highlighting a Rockies offense that is third in the NL. Contend or pretend: Contend. They picked the wrong year to blossom, but they should make the playoffs for the first time since 2009.
Bold prediction: The Rockies shop for a starter. The rotation has improved, but left-hander Kyle Freeland’s 3.77 ERA is best among Rockies starters, and another reliable option is necessary. San Diego Padres (38-50)
What went right: Very little. In fairness, the Padres are the youngest team in the majors, but they don’t have a single player who has played more than 40 games with a batting average above .300.
What needs attention: The offense, and badly. With a .294 on-base percentage and 312 runs, the Padres rank last in the majors.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. For the foreseeable future.
Bold prediction: Carlos Asuaje sees a lot more of the field. The wins don’t matter and the Padres might as well give their youth a shot. The 25-year-old second baseman has played 17 games but posted a .302 average in that span. San Francisco Giants (34-56) What went right: Buster Posey. The catcher has a .324 batting average and an on-base plus slugging percentage of .904. What needs attention: The pitching staff. Madison Bumgarner’s return should help, but disappointment abounds beyond Jeff Samardzija. It’s looking pretty ugly.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Giants have the second-worst record in baseball. Bold prediction: The Giants call up Albert Suarez, and he stays. The Giants are desperate for answers.