AMERICAN LEAGUE
The Houston Astros have run away with the American League West and built a seemingly insurmountable 161⁄ 2- game lead. As the second half dawns, USA TODAY Sports’ Kevin Santo examines an AL field that, outside of Houston, is in far more flux than had been anticipated. AL EAST Boston Red Sox (50-39)
What went right: The investment in Chris Sale. The ace started the AllStar Game, and rightly so, as his 178 strikeouts lead the majors.
What needs attention: The Red Sox have hit the fewest homers in the AL (92), but just four teams in the majors get on base more than them.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Red Sox are 31⁄ games up on the 2 Yankees and the Rays, and it’s looking like whichever team loses the division title will lock up at least one wild-card spot. Bold prediction: Sale wins the Cy Young Award. If the left-hander continues at this pace, no one in the AL will come close to touching his strikeout total. New York Yankees (45-41) What went right: Aaron Judge. The right fielder has a chance to double as rookie of the year and AL MVP, leading the majors with 30 home runs and a 1.139 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). He broke Joe DiMaggio’s record for home runs by a Yankees rookie, too. What needs attention: Righthander Dellin Betances has deteriorated as of late, and the bullpen has followed suit. No AL bullpen allowed more walks per nine innings in June, and Betances has allowed nine earned runs in his last 52⁄ innings. 3
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Yankees have scored more runs than any team in the AL other than the Astros. If their pitching can’t come around in time to catch the Red Sox, their offense figures to carry them to a wild card. Bold prediction: Judge becomes AL MVP. Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer have strong cases. But Judge stands alone. Tampa Bay Rays (47-43) What went right: A power surge. The Rays are third in the AL with 133 home runs, led by first baseman Logan Morrison’s 24. What needs attention: With Craig Kimbrel in the same division, you might have missed the fact that right-hander Alex Colome is second in the majors with 25 saves.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The
Rays already added shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and could augment further. Bold prediction: Brent Honeywell gets the call-up. The Rays need help on the mound, and the screwballthrowing right-hander has 119 strikeouts in 921⁄ innings in the minors. 3 Baltimore Orioles (42-46)
What went right: Almost nothing. The Orioles tied a major league record by allowing five or more runs in 20 consecutive games.
What needs attention: The pitching staff. The Orioles have the worst ERA in the majors, and right-hander Chris Tillman — once a staple of the rotation — has a 7.90 ERA through the first half. Contend or pretend: Pretend. Too many problems, too many good teams ahead of them.
Bold prediction: The Orioles sell, a lot. It has been a season to forget in Baltimore, and fighting for a wildcard spot isn’t enticing enough to keep the Orioles from looking toward the future. Toronto Blue Jays (41-47) What went right: Justin Smoak. The first baseman garnered his first All-Star Game selection and is leading the team in every major batting category. What needs attention: This oncedominant offense ranks 14th in AL runs scored. Contend or pretend: Pretend. Much like the Orioles, the Blue Jays are stuck. Bold prediction: Marcus Stroman gets dealt. Performance, price tag and controllable years make Stroman too tempting to deal and meaningfully reload the system.
AL CENTRAL Cleveland Indians (47-40)
What went right: Being in the AL Central. Despite hovering around .500 for most of the first half, the Indians kept their heads above water long enough to correct their issues and claim the lead.
What needs attention: The rotation. The Indians were ninth in the AL with a 3.97 team ERA in April, but it has improved every month and they now top the AL with a 3.78 mark.
Contend or pretend: Contend. Can they be even better than the 2016 pennant winners? It’s possible.
Bold prediction: Corey Kluber finishes as the AL ERA champ and gives Sale a run for Cy Young honors. Minnesota Twins (45-43) What went right: Miguel Sano. The 24-year-old third baseman leads the Twins in runs, RBI and home runs. The troubling twist is no Twin is within 20 of his RBI. What needs attention: Ervin Santana’s supporting cast. The righthander is carrying the Twins with a 2.99 ERA and 10 wins, but righthander Jose Berrios is the only other starter with an ERA below 4.00.
Contend or pretend: Contend. But send pitching help, please.
Bold prediction: The wheels fall off in the second half. Kansas City Royals (44-43) What went right: Jason Vargas. The 34-year-old left-hander has the most wins and lowest ERA in the AL. Outside of Vargas, though, the Royals haven’t gotten much help from the mound. What needs attention: The Royals have, by several measures, the worst offense in the AL and most notably a
.300 on-base percentage.
Contend or pretend: Contend. Still within reach of the Indians, still hard to kill. Bold prediction: Third baseman Mike Moustakas will break the franchise single-season home run record. It’s not that bold, as the number to beat is 36, but Moustakas is on pace to finish with 47 homers. Detroit Tigers (39-48)
What went right: Michael Fulmer. With a 3.19 ERA, Fulmer has been the sole source of consistency in a Tigers rotation with only one other hurler who has started 10 or more games.
What needs attention: The bullpen. Releasing right-hander Francisco Rodriguez hasn’t made any problems go away, as the Tigers have a 5.04 ERA among relievers. Only the Nationals have a worse mark.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Tigers don’t have nearly enough consistency from the mound to climb back and catch the Indians or Twins and likely will be sellers in the near future. Bold prediction: J.D. Martinez gets traded. Time to cash in on prospects. Chicago White Sox (38-49) What went right: Not much. Right fielder Avisail Garcia has been a bright spot, but the White Sox are stuck with the lowest win total in the AL and have an offense and pitching staff hovering between bad and mediocre. What needs attention: The starting rotation. Left-hander Jose Quintana is leading the White Sox with a 4.49 ERA and, well, that explains a lot.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The White Sox are nine games out of first place and last in the wild-card standings. And they are rumored to be dealing a few major pieces, which leads us to …
Bold prediction: Quintana getting traded. The reasonable contract remains attractive to suitors such as the Yankees and Astros. AL WEST Houston Astros (60-29) What went right: Everything? What needs attention: Believe it or not, the best pitcher on the AL’s best team might be under-appreciated. Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. is 7-2 in 16 starts with a 3.05 ERA and 106 strikeouts. He made sure the Astros didn’t lose steam since Dallas Keuchel reinjured his neck in June.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Astros look like they can win the whole thing. Bold prediction: The Astros win the World Series. They just need to stay healthy.
Los Angeles Angels (45-47)
What went right: They stayed alive. They are only two games below .500 and three games out of the wild card despite losing center fielder Mike Trout at the end of May.
What needs attention: Trout’s return. The 1.203 OPS he posted through 163 at-bats still leads the majors. Normally, we’d rule that out given a limited sample size, but this is Mike Trout we’re talking about.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Angels have wild-card hopes. It’s an uphill climb, but it’s worth watching what boost Trout’s return might provide. Bold prediction: Trout continues his career-long streak of top-two MVP finishes. Texas Rangers (43-45) What went right: Production at the plate. The Rangers have scored 444 runs, trailing only the Astros and the Yankees in the AL. What needs attention: Yu Darvish can only do so much. He leads the Rangers with six wins, a 3.49 ERA and 125 strikeouts in 1182⁄ innings. 3 The next-highest total for innings pitched is Martin Perez with 88.
Contend or pretend: Contend. With Cole Hamels healthy, the threegame wild-card deficit is worth attacking. Bold prediction: The Rangers empty the farm system one more time. Seattle Mariners (43-47) What went right: All-Star week? DH Nelson Cruz and second baseman Robinson Cano stole the headlines with a picture with Joe West and a game-winning homer, respectively.
What needs attention: The starting rotation has been a rotating door. The Mariners have used 14 starters and the rotation ranks 21st in ERA.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. Too many significant mound issues.
Bold prediction: The skid continues. The Mariners finished the first half with a 4-10 record, and there are no signs their slump won’t continue. Oakland Athletics (39-50) What went right: Khris Davis has established himself as one of the best power hitters in the game for the second consecutive year, leading the team in home runs and RBI.
What needs attention: Pitching. There might be no reliable starter beyond lefty Sean Manaea.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The division is locked up and the Athletics are way too deep in the wild-card pack. Billy Beane is already looking toward next season.
Bold prediction: Beane will move center fielder Rajai Davis and righthander Sonny Gray for future assets.