Bob Nightengale Top clubs have to be ready to deal
Dodgers, Astros should not hesitate to trade away best prospects
They are called prospects, minor league players who have a chance of one day playing in the big leagues. Some will make it. A few will become stars.
Most will be out of the game in a few years, forgotten as if they never existed.
You see, for every John Smoltz who was moved as a prospect at the trade deadline, there are many more John Bucks and Mark Teahens, farmhands who were supposed to bolster a franchise’s future while someone such as Carlos Beltran leads their new team to shortlived glory.
And with every trade of a Gleyber Torres or a Clint Frazier comes the possibility of a World Series banner, as the Chicago Cubs fly at Wrigley Field, or an American League pennant flag, as the Cleveland Indians have added at Progressive Field.
This is the week contenders must decide whether they want a chance to be on the cover of
Baseball America for having the best farm system or be on the
cover of Sports Illustrated celebrating a World Series title.
You think the folks in Los Angeles will be content with a fifth consecutive National League West championship if the Dodgers fall short of the World Series for the 30th consecutive season?
How about in Houston? Think they’ll be wildly celebrating a 110victory season if the Astros are sitting at home early in October, still seeking the first championship in franchise history?
The Dodgers had a chance to acquire David Price or Cole Hamels two years ago at the trade deadline and passed. They still have those prospects teams coveted — with shortstop Corey Seager having become a two-time All-Star and pitcher Julio Urias having had major shoulder surgery — but no pennant.
Over the last eight months, the Astros could have traded with the Chicago White Sox for Chris Sale or Jose Quintana but passed.
Now, each has a clubhouse clamoring for its front office to make moves. The Dodgers want the Texas Rangers’ Yu Darvish, along with at least another reliever. The Astros want the Oakland Athletics’ Sonny Gray or — similarly — at least one more reliever.
Sure, there are no guarantees that any trade will be the elixir. Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo cringes when he sees hardthrowing Felipe Rivero, whom they traded a year ago to the Pittsburgh Pirates for All- Star closer Mark Melancon. If the Nats still had Rivero, they would never have had the need to bolster their bullpen last week by grabbing Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson from Oakland.
The Melancon move flopped only because the Nats lost a heartbreaking Game 5 of the division series to the Dodgers, keeping them winless in postseason round play. They had no choice but to get a closer in 2016, and Melancon was the best available.
The Toronto Blue Jays, under former GM Alex Anthopoulos, were sitting in fourth place — 5051 and eight games back in 2015 — when he decided to go for the jugular. He acquired All- Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and veteran reliever LaTroy Hawkins on July 28 from the Colorado Rockies and doubled down two days later by grabbing Price from the Detroit Tigers. They added outfielder Ben Revere and reliever Mark Lowe the final day.
The Blue Jays promptly won 43 of their next 61 games, won the AL East by six games and came within two games of winning the AL pennant. They changed the landscape in Toronto, energizing a dormant fan base. Toronto drew an American League-leading 3.39 million fans a year ago and is leading the AL this year with 1.8 million fans.
Oh, and of those 11 prospects the Blue Jays traded away, only Rockies starter Jeff Hoffman (6-6 with a 5.03 ERA in 20 games) is remotely having the type of success anyone projected.
And too often, a prospect ends up panning out long after the acquiring team gave up on him. The Rangers went for it in 2010, sending Justin Smoak to the Seattle Mariners as the centerpiece of a package for Cliff Lee.
Lee helped the Rangers get past the New York Yankees and into the World Series. Smoak blossomed into an All-Star — seven years later, for the Blue Jays, three years after the Mariners waived him.
“It’s crazy the way some clubs regard prospects now,” said one high-ranking club executive not authorized to speak publicly about the situation. “They’re like stocks. They don’t hold their value forever. Some stocks rise; some go to zero at the end of the year. We’re calling every young player a prospect, when the truth is there’s very few true prospects. It’s not like owning a house. The value doesn’t always hold.”
In the words of Cubs President Theo Epstein: “If not now, when?”
The Cubs, who were going to win the NL Central with or without closer Aroldis Chapman last season, traded Torres for three months of Chapman. If not for the Chapman trade, the Cubs still would be looking for their first World Series title since 1908.
And if the Cubs hadn’t traded top prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease two weeks ago for White Sox ace Quintana, they wouldn’t have won eight of their first nine games after the All-Star break to vault into a first-place tie in the NL Central.
The Indians needed pitching help last season. If they hadn’t acquired All-Star reliever Andrew Miller from the Yankees in a deal that included Frazier, they might not have reached the playoffs. Without Miller, they had zero chance of reaching Game 7 of the World Series. Today, the Indians are in first place in the AL Central, having sold more tickets than they did all last season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Rockies, who both realistically have only a chance at wild-card berths with the Dodgers running away with the NL West, realize that this is an opportunity that might not exist in a year. The Rockies are likely going to lose All-Star closer Greg Holland. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, the teams’ respective franchise players, are only guaranteed to remain through 2019.
Make no mistake about it, they are going for it.
The Dodgers, particularly with three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw sidelined again with lower back issues, must acquire a frontline starter. If they don’t believe in Gray with his history of injuries, then it’s Darvish, providing he hits the market. If not Darvish, there’s former Cy Young winner Justin Verlander of the Tigers, with the Cubs lurking with preliminary talks.
Certainly, the Dodgers could find a spot for starter Lance Lynn, a pending free agent whom the St. Louis Cardinals are expected to trade.
The Dodgers might be set up nicely for the future with their array of young talent, but their worst nightmare could be just around the corner. Kershaw has an opt-out clause in his contract after the 2018 season, which he is expected to exercise, testing the free agent waters.
If the Dodgers want to keep their future Hall of Famer, it’s not a matter of giving him more money but merely providing him a better chance to pitch in the World Series. No one wants to become the next Felix Hernandez, the Mariners’ six-time All- Star and Cy Young winner who has yet to pitch in the postseason.
Sure, winning can come at a price, too. The New York Mets traded away future All-Star pitcher Michael Fulmer to the Tigers in 2015, but Yoenis Cespedes led the Mets to the pennant. In the World Series, they lost to the Kansas City Royals, who traded five prospects for starter Johnny Cueto and second baseman Ben Zobrist to win their first championship since 1985.
But go ahead, ask them if they have any regrets. Ask Brian Sabean if he regrets consistently flipping prospects to fortify three eventual World Series winners, with only Zack Wheeler (traded for Beltran in a failed 2013 playoff bid) truly coming back to haunt him.
This is the lightning round of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and soon we’ll know what every team is thinking.
It’s the week that contenders and teams on the bubble must look in the mirror and ask the one simple question:
If not now, when?