Crystal NFL ball
Nate Davis serves up predictions on each team’s record as well as a playoff forecast,
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (11-5): The league should be ready for Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott — assuming he isn’t suspended — this time; that celebrated offensive line is breaking in two new starters, and the defense could be a hot mess. Still, there’s no denying this club’s offensive firepower. The Cowboys play four of their five November games at home, a good point to make a move in the standings. New York Giants (10-6): They open with four of six on the road. Survive that stretch and maybe establish some semblance of a ground game to complement their aerial weapons, and the Giants could contend for the division title. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7): The offensive line is intact, and Carson Wentz has fancy new weapons. But the defensive front seven better dominate or else that shaky secondary could be fatally exposed. Back-to-back West Coast games in December hurt. Washington Redskins (5
11): The questions about Kirk Cousins’ future will be on constant loop. And he might not enjoy the present all that much after losing two 1,000-yard receivers.
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers (12-4): They open against the Seattle Seahawks and at the Atlanta Falcons and play at Lambeau only twice after Thanksgiving. Still, they should again be the class of this division. Minnesota Vikings (9-7): They don’t look significantly different from last year’s edition. The defense should again be special and Sam Bradford steady. Despite free agent additions, the offensive line could still be a weakness, though newcomers Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook should ensure the Vikings don’t again own the league’s worst rushing attack. Playing five of their first seven games at U.S. Bank Stadium should set the tone. Chicago Bears (5-11): None of their first six opponents finished below .500 in 2016, offering quite a stern test for a club coming off a franchise record-tying 13 losses and breaking in at least one new quarterback. Detroit Lions (5-11): It just feels like they lived on the edge way too often in 2016, and smoke and mirrors might not be enough against this year’s schedule. However, if DE Ziggy Ansah rebounds and RB Ameer Abdullah finally gets going, cynicism could turn to optimism.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons (12-4): They might have the most loaded roster in the league and should get a boost from opening their new stadium. The big questions about the defending NFC champs are the dreaded Super Bowl hangover — and the Falcons went on an unprecedented bender — the loss of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and a midseason stretch of four road games in five weeks that includes trips to New England and Seattle. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(10-6): They seem poised to make their first playoff appearance in a decade after diversifying a lopsided offense with WR DeSean Jackson and rookie TE O.J. Howard. RB Doug Martin is apparently recharged, too, though he is suspended for the first three games. They’ll see the Falcons twice and the Packers once between Week 12 and Week 15. New Orleans Saints (8-8): Same old Saints? Adding Adrian Peterson to the backfield provides great intrigue, yet this team still looks like it will be in a shootout every week. And will it survive the first month? The Saints open with three of four on the road, including a game in London, and their only Superdome game in that stretch is a visit from former WR Brandin Cooks and the Patriots. Carolina Panthers (7-9): Cam Newton has a surgically rebuilt arm and must settle into a surgically rebuilt offense that could be a real departure from what typically made Carolina successful before last year’s disaster. October looks rough with just one of five games in Charlotte, and that’s a tough Thursday nighter against Philadelphia.
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks (11-5): They’re still the divisional frontrunners, especially with Russell Wilson and Earl Thomas healthy again. But a tough non-divisional road schedule (Packers, Titans, Giants, Cowboys) — and even a 1 p.m. ET start in Jacksonville — could make it awfully tough to earn an extended stay at CenturyLink Field in January. Arizona Cardinals (10-6): They have a special player in David Johnson. But will Carson Palmer and Tyrann Mathieu max out their abilities again? And how long can Larry Fitzgerald (league-high 107 catches), who will be 34 next month, handle such a heavy workload? (Note: In our projection, the Cardinals failed to earn a wild card based on a worse conference record than the Giants or Buccaneers.) Los Angeles Rams (4-12): They’re a young team having significant resets on both sides of the ball. And after opening with two winnable games (Colts, Redskins) at home, the Rams play five of the next six away from L.A. Coliseum, including a “home” game in London bracketed by East Coast games in Jacksonville and New Jersey (vs. the Giants). San Francisco 49ers (2-14): Even if the records match, they should be a better team than Chip Kelly’s 2-14 club of 2016. But the talent base is largely deficient and so is the players’ familiarity with what new coaches want them to do on either side of the ball.
AFC EAST
New England Patriots
(16-0): Is it bold? Sure. Kind of. But it’s not like Tom Brady hasn’t gone 16-0 before. (And, really, wouldn’t he and Bill Belichick secretly love to add 19-0 to their otherwise incomparable résumés?) And for what it’s worth, Brady went 14-1 last season including the playoffs and appears to be surrounded by an even better cast, especially if Rob Gronkowski is, in fact, back to 100%. The division should be a cakewalk, and even one of New England’s toughest road games —
against the Raiders — will be at a neutral site (Mexico City). The most difficult stretch comes from Weeks 13 to 15, when the Patriots play at Buffalo, at Miami (where they typically struggle) and at Pittsburgh coming off a short week.
Miami Dolphins (7-9): Coming off a playoff campaign in coach Adam Gase’s rookie season, the Dolphins have much riding on the health and continued development of Ryan Tannehill. The schedule isn’t all that friendly, with trips to the West Coast, London, a road date with Baltimore on a Thursday and December trips to Buffalo and Kansas City. Buffalo Bills (4-12): New regime. New schemes. Tough schedule against the NFC South and AFC West. New York Jets (1-15): Some Jets fans would tell you this is a glass-half-full assessment. The first two games are on the road and so are three of the last four.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): With the exception of an October foray to Kansas City, which concludes an opening stretch of four of six games on the road, Pittsburgh’s most challenging nondivisional games will occur at Heinz Field. Baltimore Ravens (9-7): There might be a little heat on coach John Harbaugh after missing the postseason three of the last four years. They get a tough break hosting the Steelers on Oct. 1, seven days after playing in London. (Note: In our projection, the Ravens were seeded ahead of the Chargers because of a superior record in common games played.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-11): The offensive line’s outlook is troubling, to say the least, especially with three consecutive road games against stout defensive teams (Jacksonville, Tennessee, Denver) in November. And Marvin Lewis’ lame-duck status might ratchet up the pressure on a team that tends to underachieve when it counts most. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Even if they improve by only three games in the win column — not insignificant — expect this outfit to be far more competitive as its nucleus of talent continues to coalesce.
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans (12-4): Only a tiebreaker (for a 2-4 division record) kept this rising club out of postseason play last year. As long as Marcus Mariota remains on the field, the Titans might not only turn the corner but also roar around it. They will hit a rough patch from Week 11 to Week 15, with a Thursday night game in Pittsburgh and consecutive games on the West Coast as part of a stretch in which they play four of five away from Nashville. Houston Texans (8-8): We know, Bill O’Brien has never failed to go 9-7 in any of his three seasons. But when your team’s top two quarterbacks have two combined NFL starts, it’s easy to foresee a season that serves as one step back before two steps forward occur in 2018. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8): Everything looks to be in place — a potentially dominant defense, upgraded offensive line and, most exciting for Jags fans, rookie RB Leonard Fournette — to restore this franchise to relevance ... if Blake Bortles can get back on track. The team will make its annual pilgrimage for a London “home” date in Week 3, immediately followed by two more road trips. If the Jags weather that, they might make a run in Decem- ber, which begins with three in a row at EverBank Field. Indianapolis Colts (5-11): How healthy, really, is Andrew Luck coming off major shoulder surgery? How much protection can he realistically expect from what’s been a suspect line, not to mention a running back (Frank Gore) who just turned 34? And that defense ... oy vey. Making two West Coast trips in the first month to face rude defenses (Rams, Seahawks) could be telling.
AFC WEST
Oakland Raiders (11-5): They open the season with three of four on the road and play their final two games away from Oakland, including the season’s final Monday night affair on the East Coast (Philadelphia). In between, they’ll play three consecutive homes games on two separate occasions, but one of those will occur against the Patriots in Mexico City — not exactly the Black Hole. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7): There’s plenty to overcome, most notably adapting to a new city and the smallest venue in the league (StubHub Center will host its first NFL games in Weeks 2 to 4). Then there are personnel changes coming to the offensive line and a major schematic overhaul defensively. Still, the Bolts have done a nice job of restocking their talent pool, especially on defense, and have the juice to be Los Angeles’ first playoff club since the 1993 Raiders. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8): Of their five non-divisional road opponents, four were playoff teams last year (Patriots, Texans, Cowboys, Giants) ... as if their AFC West battles didn’t present challenge enough. But if the Chiefs can hold it together until December, playing at Arrowhead from Weeks 14 to 16 could give them a decisive edge. Denver Broncos (7-9): They have major questions at quarterback ... and running back ... and on both lines. Also, a schedule front-loaded with home games and a Week 5 bye means the Broncos won’t be in Denver for seven of the final 11 weeks.
AFC PLAYOFFS
Wild card: (6) Chargers defeat (3) Titans; (4) Raiders defeat (5) Ravens. Divisional: (4) Raiders defeat (2) Steelers; (1) Patriots defeat (6) Chargers. Championship game: (1) Patriots defeat (4) Raiders.
NFC PLAYOFFS
Wild card: (6) Giants defeat (3) Cowboys; (4) Seahawks defeat (5) Buccaneers. Divisional: (2) Packers defeat (4) Seahawks; (1) Falcons defeat (6) Giants. Championship game: (2) Packers defeat (1) Falcons.
SUPER BOWL LII
Patriots defeat Packers