Outlier or not, ’16 proved value of running backs
If there’s one lesson fantasy football owners learned last season, it’s that there’s no substitute for a stud running back. Take a look at the teams that won their league titles in 2016, and there is a very good chance their rosters included David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell or Ezekiel Elliott.
Those elite performers averaged about 20 fantasy points a game in standard scoring formats — with Johnson and Bell topping 25 in leagues that award points for receptions. Their heavy workloads and elite production gave owners a huge advantage with so many NFL teams favoring pass-first offenses and using committee approaches in the backfield.
Interestingly, the heavy emphasis on the pass took a small step backward in 2016 after a streak of six consecutive recordsetting years for passing yards per game. It wasn’t a major decrease (from 243.8 yards per game in 2015 to 241.5 last season), but it also came with a drop in touchdown passes (from a record 26.3 per team in 2015 to 24.6).
Rushing touchdowns, meanwhile, increased dramatically from 11.4 per team to 13.8. LeGarrette Blount led the league with 18 rushing TDs, followed by Johnson with 16 and Elliott with 15.
Not since Arian Foster in 2012 had anyone rushed for as many as 15 touchdowns in a season.
Is the pendulum swinging back toward the running game? Or is it a one-year anomaly? That’s one of the things we’ll try to figure out as we prepare for the fantasy football season.
The best guess here is that the passing game will continue to rule. Although 12 backs rushed for more than 1,000 yards a year ago, 23 wideouts (and two tight ends) topped the century mark in receiving yards.
Receivers, on the whole, will provide more consistent production, but those elite three-down running backs — Johnson, Bell and Elliott — figure to be the most valuable fantasy players again in 2017. RUNNING BACK SHUFFLE Five years ago, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles finished among the top 10 fantasy running backs — Peterson was No. 1 overall, Lynch No. 5, Charles No. 9.
The following year, Charles took over the No. 1 spot, with Lynch holding steady at No. 5 and Peterson dropping to No. 10.
They were prominent members of that elite class of running backs that fantasy owners coveted.
But time isn’t very kind to NFL players, especially running backs. All three suffered significant injuries and no longer fit into their teams’ plans.
Yet all three have resurfaced this offseason with new teams and are looking to continue their careers in complementary roles. How well these former stars are able to adapt to their new offenses is another of this season’s interesting story lines.
Peterson, 32, is coming off his second knee surgery in three years. In joining the New Orleans Saints, he’ll battle Mark Ingram for carries in one of the NFL’s best passing offenses.
It’s quite a change for Peterson, who was the focal point of the Minnesota Vikings’ run-first attack for his first 10 NFL seasons.
Lynch, 31, announced his retirement and sat out last season before deciding to come back with his hometown team, the Oakland Raiders. Can he rekindle memories of his Beast Mode prime? He’ll have one of the game’s best offensive lines creating running lanes for him.
And Charles, 30, is trying to come back from knee problems that limited him to a total of eight games over the last two seasons. The Denver Broncos brought him in with no guarantee of a roster spot and an established starter, C.J. Anderson, in front of him.
But if Charles’ knee proves sound, he could give the offense a big-play threat.
His career average of 5.5 yards per carry ranks second in NFL history behind Hall of Famer Marion Motley. CATCHING ON ELSEWHERE There are also several high-profile wideouts who have taken their talents to new places.
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady might have the kind of deep threat he hasn’t enjoyed since Randy Moss after the offseason acquisition of speedster Brandin Cooks.
Cooks caught 78 passes for a career-high 1,173 yards with eight touchdowns last season in New Orleans.
But his fantasy value might take a hit because of the many weapons Brady has at his disposal, including tight end Rob Gronkowski, reliable wideout Julian Edelman and several new running backs.
The Washington Redskins revamped their receiving corps, bringing in free agent Terrelle Pryor from the Cleveland Browns to help offset the losses of Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.
In his first full season as a receiver, Pryor caught 77 passes for 1,007 yards from a carousel of starting quarterbacks that seemed to change every week. He has the size and speed — and a significant upgrade at quarterback in Kirk Cousins — to become one of this season’s breakout performers.
Meanwhile, Garcon looks like the No. 1 wideout for the San Francisco 49ers, and Jackson gives the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a deep threat to pair with stalwart receiver Mike Evans.
Other veteran pass catchers joining new teams: Alshon Jeffery with the Philadelphia Eagles, Brandon Marshall with the New York Giants and Eric Decker with the Tennessee Titans. NEW IDEAS, STRATEGIES Over the last few years, the fantasy community seems to have made the shift to point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.
Even as the debate continues over which scoring system is best, PPR generally wins out because there are more possible points and — in fantasy leagues as well as the NFL — more scoring tends to produce more excitement.
But one alternative that is gaining popularity is the “superflex,” which allows a quarterback as an option for a utility or flex spot in a starting lineup. Because quarterbacks will almost always score more points than any other position, it essentially allows owners to start two quarterbacks — and opens up a whole new kind of strategy.
Instead of most owners waiting to draft their starting quarterback, the superflex format turns elite quarterbacks into highly prized assets. (And really complicates things when quarterbacks are on bye.) For those who want their fantasy leagues to be more like the real thing, this format could be an innovation worth adopting.