Trump team isn’t ready to handle a nuclear crisis
Here’s the good news: We are not yet in a crisis with North Korea. We are not facing an imminent threat of hostilities against the United States or its allies. Kim Jong Un’s relentless march toward a long-range nuclear missile is picking up speed, but we still have time for diplomacy.
The bad news? When that day comes, the Trump administration might not be up to the job. If this is a dress rehearsal, this team is not ready for opening night.
The president’s strategy has been to threaten Pyongyang — apparently unbeknownst to his advisers — with “fire and fury,” and to brag on Twitter about how he has single-handedly restored the U.S. nuclear deterrent to its strongest ever. (This is a headscratcher, since the U.S. arsenal is smaller than it has been at any time in recent history, and it was President Obama, not President Trump, who signed off on a trillion dollar modernization that is still underway.)
Even on a good day, the administration’s foreign policy is characterized by disarray at best and incoherence at worst. Defense Secretary James Mattis is a voice of reason, but he is far from the scrum over at the Pentagon. Rex Tillerson, in theory, is the secretary of State, but in reality he is practically invisible — usually coming in later (as with “fire and fury”) to do what little damage control he can manage.
And then there is the war against national security adviser H.R. McMaster, conducted by people who know very little about national security. America’s enemies are no doubt paying careful attention to the shameful spectacle of alt-right bloggers and smear artists acting as proxies for a White House faction determined to remove a man of McMaster’s ability and reputation.
The new chief of staff, retired general John Kelly, seems to be trying to impose order on the West Wing. Hopefully, a top priority will be to create an orderly national security advising process without sniping and sabotaging by dilettantes and ideologues.
The reassuring exception is Nikki Haley, ambassador to the United Nations. Her foreign policy, at least rhetorically, is a model of clarity compared with the White House. And credit where it is due: The Trump administration’s North Korea sanctions move passed the Security Council unanimously. Unfortunately, U.N. ambassadors are often the clearest voice because they are so far from Washington and have so little power.
In a few years, Pyongyang may well be on the verge of testing a nuclear-armed missile. At that point, we will be in an actual crisis, with little time to make a decision, drowning in data of uneven quality and the voice of a panicked public roaring in our ears. It will be time then to turn off Twitter. It will be time to listen to the voices of serious men and women, whose options will invariably be a choice among least bad alternatives, all of which will involve the loss of human life.
Will the Trump White House be ready?