Trump’s attacks on Congress could be his undoing
President alienates key Republicans when he could use allies
President Trump is alienating congressional Republicans who might otherwise be his biggest defenders in the investigation of possible ties between the Trump campaign and Russia, political analysts said.
“Trump’s criticism of the very people he would need to defend him are potentially his undoing down the road,” said Barry Burden, a professor of political science and director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Trump’s Twitter rants against senators and his divisive comments about the racially motivated violence in Charlottesville, Va., angered Republican lawmakers who would normally have been inclined to support a GOP president in tough times, Burden said.
“They really have very little incentive to stand by him,” Burden said. “Whether that would result in impeachment or some sort of censure motion, it’s too soon to know. But I think most Republicans in Congress would be very content to see (Vice President) Mike Pence take Trump’s place.”
The president can’t expect loyalty from Republican leaders when he hasn’t given it to them, said Robert Speel, associate professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University. Trump’s failure to realize that could further undermine his presidency if special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation uncovers damaging information about the president.
“If the Mueller investigation finds that a crime has been committed, that could be the point at which Speaker (Paul) Ryan and Majority Leader (Mitch) McConnell break from Trump and say they can no longer support the president,” Speel said. “One of the biggest risks for Trump is that Mueller comes out with a damning report and the president has already lost the goodwill of too many members of Congress.”
In the past few weeks, Trump has launched a barrage of Twitter attacks against McConnell, blaming him for the Senate’s failure to repeal Obamacare. He blasted Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., as a “publicity seeker” for criticizing the president for equating white nationalists with the people protesting them, and he tried to undermine the re-election campaign of Sen. Jeff Flake, RAriz., calling him “toxic.” Flake and Graham are members of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which is investigating Russia’s alleged interference in the 2016 presidential election and possible ties between Russian officials and the Trump campaign.
Trump has also tangled with Ryan, blasting the House speaker as “a weak and ineffective leader” in October.
“The president has no experience in governing and just doesn’t understand how it all works,” Burden said. “He’s used to running a business where he can just exile or replace people if they don’t do what he wants. The trouble is he doesn’t have control over members of Congress. They have their own independent base of support back in their states, and I think the mechanics of legislating just frustrate him.”
That doesn’t mean GOP leaders will balk at passing Trump’s agenda, at least on issues such as a tax overhaul that they support and hope will help get their members re-elected next year, said Michael Zilis, assistant professor of political science at the University of Kentucky.
“It’s clear that the tension between Trump and Congress has been exacerbated recently, but I’m not entirely sure how significant an effect this is going to have on his legislative agenda,” Zilis said. “The overarching goals of Republicans in Congress are largely compatible with what Trump is seeking. They may not like Trump, but they don’t really have anyone else to work with.”
House Republicans may be especially reluctant to criticize the president because they fear a primary challenge from Trump supporters on the right, Speel said.
The president is in bigger trouble in the Senate, where Republicans hold a slim 52-48 majority and angry Democrats have united against him in a chamber that requires 60 votes to pass most major legislation.