2018 FREE AGENTS WILL SET THE BAR
Harper and Machado are locks to cash in. But what about the rest of the group?
Make no mistake: The free agent class of 2018 should be the greatest in baseball history.
From MVP winners to future Hall of Famers to multiple franchise players, this star-studded cast will likely produce the first $400 million player, generate more than $2 billion in future salaries and stoke perhaps the wildest offseason of fiscal insanity the sport has seen.
Yet while anticipation for this group is appropriate and fan giddiness is grounded in reality, the 2017 season has proved that ballplayers are, indeed, assets.
Some gain value. Many others decline. Predicting future performance — particularly for pro athletes fighting unsympathetic aging curves — is always problematic.
Now, don’t get us wrong: The Class of ’18 is far from devolving into Bryce Harper and Everyone Else.
But the penultimate year before a contingent that includes five MVP or Cy Young Award winners hits the market has cast shadows on the group.
Of the consensus top dozen players who could be available after the 2018 season, five — four of them pitchers — have landed on the disabled list. Two of those — left-handers Clayton Kershaw and David Price — will hit the market only if they opt out of current contracts valued at $215 million and $217 million, respectively.
While Kershaw’s latest back injury and Price’s ongoing elbow woes won’t necessarily extend into 2018, it’s worth noting that both are less likely to opt out if they finish next season with significant medical red flags.
At a time when office-bound actuaries are as valuable to organizations as sunburned scouts, teams will be far more conscious of age than they were even six years ago, when Albert Pujols received a $240 million contract that will extend into his 40s.
Oh, teams will pay top dollar for stars in their primes such as Harper. But recent offseasons indicate that players on the wrong side of 30 will find it challenging to prod teams into paying for past performance.
The list that follows — and the market it produces — will be fluid over the next 15 months. Individual player values will be rebuilt and torn down; a pitcher such as New York Mets starter Matt Harvey can go from limited appeal to free agent jackpot with a healthy, dominant 2018 season.
With that in mind, a peek at how baseball’s 2018-19 feeding frenzy is rounding into form, with ages as of opening day 2019. An asterisk denotes players with optout clauses. Statistics entering Monday. 1. Bryce Harper (26)
Résumé: 2015 National League MVP, career .905 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS),
150 homers before turning 25. Trending: Up. Never mind the bone bruise in his knee that will cost him most of the remaining regular season. His 29 homers and 1.034 OPS this season more easily frame his 2016 struggles as an injury-addled aberration.
Outlook: Adios, A-Rod. Harper’s age, upside, track record and marketability will make him the biggest free agent get ever. 2. Manny Machado (26)
Résumé: Three All- Star appearances and top-10 MVP finishes, career .811 OPS and 27.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
Trending: Even. Machado’s bad/good 2017 (.741 OPS before the break, .967 after) won’t threaten his status as 1A, behind Harper.
Outlook: Machado might not get Harper money, but his market might be wider, as upper-middle class clubs such as the Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies and Texas Rangers figure to join the big-market behemoths for his services. 3. Clayton Kershaw (31)*
Résumé: Three-time Cy Young Award winner, one-time MVP, 141-62 record, 2.34 ERA,
1.00 walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched (WHIP).
Trending: Down. Make no mistake: Any team would find room for the greatest left-hander of his generation. But with back woes interrupting his last two seasons, teams will have pause about giving a 31-year-old Kershaw a fresh deal north of
$200 million.
Outlook: Perhaps the most intriguing figure in this class. Does Kershaw want to be a Los Angeles Dodger for life or start anew? Will another DL trip in 2017 make him rethink forfeiting
$65 million to hit the market? 4. Josh Donaldson (33)
Résumé: 2015 American League MVP, four top-10 MVP finishes, .873 career OPS. Trending: Even. The skills are
clearly there — a .393 on-base percentage and 20 homers in 287 at-bats this season — but Donaldson succumbed to significant injury for the first time, as a calf injury has limited him to 81 games.
Outlook: Donaldson will be the flag bearer for the 30-something crowd. Will suitors bid on his track record or guard against his advancing age? An athletic freak, Donaldson looks to be a good bet for the long term, but players approaching their mid30s aren’t as valued as they were even a few years ago. 5. David Price (33)*
Résumé: 2012 Cy Young Award winner, two runner-up finishes, five 200-strikeout seasons, career 126-68 record.
Trending: Down. Like Kershaw, Price is a 2018 opt-out candidate who’s on the DL. And Price is dealing with a vexing elbow issue that has limited him to
66 innings this season.
Outlook: Price would be walking away from a lot more money — four years and $127 million — than Kershaw. But Price’s clashes with Boston media members and his injuries have made for a miserable season. Perhaps no player in this class has more riding on
2018. 6. Craig Kimbrel (30)
Résumé: 285 career saves, sixtime All- Star, averaging 14.8 strikeouts per nine innings for career Trending: Up. Kimbrel has 29 saves, is striking out 16.8 batters per nine and boasts a 0.62 WHIP. Outlook: Kimbrel’s age, domi-
nance and the market’s thirst for relievers will bode well. Aroldis Chapman’s record $86 million deal will be within reach. 7. Charlie Blackmon (32)
Résumé: Two-time All- Star, National League-leading 168 hits, 115 runs and 310 total bases this season
Trending: Up. Blackmon’s next home run will be his careerhigh 30th, and he’ll likely finish with an OPS north of 1.000 for the first time.
Outlook: Blackmon will face the same age concerns as many in this class. Another hurdle: the Coors Field factor. His career OPS is .965 at home, .738 on the road. 8. Daniel Murphy (34)
Résumé: Three-time All- Star, batting title runner-up, launch angle revolutionary.
Trending: Up. Is it possible for him to get a bigger free agent deal than he did when he’s three years older? The Washington Nationals snagged Murphy for three years and $37.5 million. That might represent the floor after next year.
Outlook: Murphy’s muchchronicled swing changes produced an MVP runner-up finish in his first year in Washington and a .966 OPS over two seasons. It also represents the line of demarcation, where he went from a useful player to a dominant — and very well-compensated — one. 9. Elvis Andrus (30)*
Résumé: Two-time All- Star,
1,411 hits, 264 steals.
Trending: Up. Andrus’ .812 OPS this season is well above the
.679 mark he produced from
2009 to 2015.
Outlook: Andrus will have four years and $58 million remaining on his current deal when he reaches the first of two optout years. If the last two seasons are his new normal, he’ll opt out and cash in as the best shortstop option in this class. 10. Andrew Miller (33)
Résumé: Two-time All- Star,
2016 American League Championship Series MVP, 14.4 strikeouts per nine innings since 2014.
Trending: Even. Miller’s ERA
(1.65) and WHIP (0.77) are slightly up from last season, and he spent much of August on the DL with right knee tendinitis.
Outlook: How long can a
dominant reliever maintain that level? Miller will be an interesting case study, as he’s four years into a run of high-leverage excellence, with another punishing October run on the horizon. Here’s guessing he’s mowing down hitters from both sides of the plate through next season and likely doubling the $36 million he received after 2014. 11. Brian Dozier (31) Résumé: AL record for home runs by a second baseman (42 in 2016), 142 career home runs.
Trending: Even. Dozier might not match his career best homer mark from 2016, but his on-base skills have solidified (a .342 OBP over the last two seasons). Could benefit from a move to a more hitter-friendly climate.
12. Andrew McCutchen
(32)
Résumé: Five-time All- Star, MVP, 137 career OPS+.
Trending: Up. After setting career lows almost across the board in 2016, McCutchen made good on his bounce-back promise, producing a .889 OPS and 23 homers, one shy of his 2016 total.
Outlook: Call us sentimental for granting the last spot in this dandy dozen to Cutch, but perhaps he’s going to age far more gracefully than we imagined. THE BEST OF THE REST Starting pitchers: Matt Harvey, Gio Gonzalez, Patrick Corbin, Drew Pomeranz, Garrett Richards, Drew Smyly, Brandon McCarthy. Relievers: Zach Britton, Cody Allen, Kelvin Herrera, Justin Wilson, Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle, Trevor Rosenthal, A.J. Ramos, Brad Brach, Jeurys Familia. Catchers: Joe Mauer, Wilson Ramos. First basemen: Justin Smoak, Adrian Gonzalez, Marwin Gonzalez, Luis Valbuena. Second basemen: D.J.
LeMahieu. Shortstops: Adeiny Hecha
varria, Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis. Third basemen: Adrian
Beltre, Chase Headley. Outfielders: A.J. Pollock, Adam Jones, Jason Heyward*, Michael Brantley, Brett Gardner, Jose Bautista, Nick Markakis, Lonnie Chisenhall. DHs: Nelson Cruz, Victor Martinez.