Chapman’s fastball loses effectiveness
Ever since Aroldis Chapman showed the first signs of what became a full-blown slump, the New York Yankees have been frantically looking for a cure. Chapman has, too, although the idea that a triple-digit fastball is prone to getting smoked goes against all possible logic.
How does Chapman — or anyone else who throws 100 mph — get barreled up?
This isn’t just idle scientific research: The Yankees’ run for the postseason could depend on whether Chapman is fixed before October. They’re hoping to find a simple flaw in the Cuban lefthander’s delivery, which could theoretically be tweaked in a few bullpen sessions.
But the problem might run deeper than that, say talent evaluators who note Chapman has lost
1.5 mph off his four-seamer since last year. That could be the result of bad mechanics, an injury or the way he was used by Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon in the World Series. Still, any discussion of a drop-off is relative; averaging
99.4 mph, Chapman still owns the game’s most ferocious fastball. There has to be another reason why hitters suddenly look comfortable against him.
In an era in which radar-gun readings keep increasing, one possible explanation is that Chapman’s fastball has become indistinguishable. According to Statcast, 18 hurlers this year are in his strata, averaging 98 mph or better. And Pitch F/X says this is the seventh consecutive season that overall velocity has ticked upward. There’s no sign of a slowdown.
Pitching guru Tom House, a former major leaguer and now a California-based motion analysis expert, said, “I think 100 is the new average. If a kid isn’t sitting (at) 100 and showing 105 in the next five-10 years, he’s not going to be in the big leagues.”
The explosion in velocity is no accident. House is one of the pioneers of teaching “ground force” as a way to make pitchers throw harder. The average stride length for a pitcher is 77% to 87% of his height. The ones who do better create an illusion of throwing much, much harder — perceived velocity, he calls it.
House calculates that for every extra foot he can squeeze out of a pitcher’s stride, the hitter sees a
3-mph gain in fastball speed. Put it this way: A 95-mph fastball from 50 feet looks faster than a
95-mph one from 53 feet. Input that formula to a hurler who throws 100 instead of 95, and you have a hitter’s nightmare. Scientists say the human eye loses track of a fastball — like Chapman’s — once it reaches a certain velocity, forcing opponents to literally guess its trajectory after that. Ken Fuld, a visual psychophysicist at the University of New Hampshire, told ScienceLive- .com, “The best hitters can (only) the track the ball to within 5 or 6 feet of the plate.”
But just as the craft of pitching has evolved, so has hitting, mostly because it had to.
“The game adjusts to everything, including 100-mph fastballs,” Baltimore Orioles manager Buck Showalter said. “Once hitters decide they’re committed to velocity, they can turn around a bullet.”
Added Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons, “There’s no question (hitters) have gotten used to 100. I’m not saying that it’s easy to catch up to, because it’s not. But that speed is no longer a freak thing. You have to have something to complement it.”
House also concedes the fastball monsters he has created can be defeated.
“The average hitter will be able to hit 100 if that’s all he sees,” House said.” The key is being able to disguise 100 (with off-speed pitches). He can’t hit 100 that’s dressed up.”
That would explain why Chapman’s swing-and-miss ratio has declined by more than 30% this year; hitters are seeing what was once invisible. That’s where deception and the need for a second pitch comes in. If Chapman wants to win back his closer’s job — heck, even just to intimidate opponents the way he used — he’ll need a breaking pitch.
Trouble is, he has no off-speed weapons to speak of. His slider spins and helicopters, but that’s about it. Hitters have recognized the glaring deficit in Chapman’s arsenal, stopped scanning for it and instead focus only on the heat. And as the Boston Red Sox proved in back-to-back series against the Yankees, they’re ready for whatever Chapman’s got.
What they’re doing, of course, is starting their swing early — cheating, actually. When Boston’s Rafael Devers clobbered Chapman’s 103.1-mph fastball over the left-center wall at Yankee Stadium on Aug. 12, he did so without any concern for the slider. But Chapman has made a career prevailing on heat alone, and he practically went into shock when Devers hit the home run that tied the score in the ninth inning. The Red Sox prevailed in the 10th.
Chapman hasn’t been the same since. “When any hard thrower, not just Chapman, gets knocked off their perch, when someone squares up on them, you wonder how they’re going to handle it,” Showalter said. “It’s not something they’re used to.”
Nor is being busted down a rank. Chapman will be used “at any time” according to Yankees manager Joe Girardi, including the seventh inning, where he appeared Sunday at Fenway Park. The idea is to allow the lefty to decompress in lower-leverage situations and perhaps effect repairs on that slider. But it could be awhile before Chapman and his ego regain their swagger.
In the meantime, the Yankees will entrust the ninth inning to Dellin Betances and David Robertson, both of whom feature excellent curveballs. Still, everyone around the club is hoping for Chapman’s resurrection. Regardless, this much has become fact: A great fastball might historically have been a pitcher’s best friend, but it’s no longer foolproof.