POLLS:
They no longer decide the champion, but they still drive conversation
College football’s poll era wasn’t perfect. Three times in the last decade of its existence the polls failed to reach a consensus: Georgia Tech and Colorado shared the title in 1990, Miami (Fla.) and Washington did the same a year later, and Michigan and Nebraska staked simultaneous claims to the championship in 1997.
The ensuing era of the Bowl Championship Series, which began in 1998, clarified the championship picture — though not without controversy of its own. Under the BCS structure, the major selectors became part of the formula but not the deciding factor; they were lumped together with computer averages to create a wider ranking, a move that maintained, if slightly diminished, the polls’ role in deciding the eventual national champion.
Yet they remained a factor. It wasn’t until the advent of the College Football Playoff, which made its debut four seasons ago, that the question could legitimately be raised: In this current age, what role do the major polls — the Amway Coaches Poll and the Associated Press poll — truly play?
Instead of deciders, the polls have become primers. They continue to serve one major purpose: to inform in the preseason, providing glimpses into the teams projected to stand atop the Football Bowl Subdivision, and then reflect movement during the two months preceding the debut of the Playoff rankings.
Of secondary importance — in terms of the chase for the national title, at least — is the grip the polls hold within the national conversation. As an engagement tool, the polls create dialogue, dissension and controversy. But they no longer hold any brass tacks purpose in the hunt for the national championship.
“I’m not saying it’s useless, by any stretch,” said Washington State coach Mike Leach, a voter in the Amway Coaches Poll. “It’s closer to useless than a lot of people think, but the thing that can’t be ignored is it’s a vehicle to share with the fans and create excitement. And the value of that is pretty large, I think. The best thing it does is it engages the fans. It gives the fans a starting point.”
Yet there remains a chickenand-egg argument: In providing a blueprint or road map for seeding the top teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision, do the polls affect the thought process of the Playoff selection committee or vice versa?
Selecting the best teams in the country isn’t rocket science. Still, there’s a clear bond between the two selectors. Take the debut Playoff rankings of 2016, for example, which were issued on Nov. 1, two days after the coaches poll’s weekly release.
The Playoff rankings featured nine of the same top 10 teams as the coaches poll and three teams in the same exact position: Alabama was No. 1 in both rankings, Ohio State was No. 6 and Nebraska was No. 10. The only difference? The coaches poll had Florida at No. 9, while the selection committee placed Auburn ninth and the Gators at No. 11.
The only team that was ranked drastically different between the two selectors was Penn State, then 6-2, which was No. 23 in the coaches poll but skyrocketed to No. 12 in the Playoff rankings, largely because of an impressive strength of schedule — the committee was “very impressed with their improvement, but also the quality of their wins,” said chairman Kirby Hocutt, the athletics director at Texas Tech.
So it’s possible to make two seemingly contradictory statements: The major polls might no longer decide the national champion, but they have retained an obvious connection — almost en- tirely as an influencer — in how the four-team field shakes out during the final weeks of each regular season.
But return to the idea of the polls as primers. They remain vital in one respect: It’s difficult — if not nearly impossible, based on recent history — to win a national championship without some degree of advanced billing during the preseason.
In the last decade, only one team, Auburn in 2010, has won the national title without holding a top-six ranking in the preseason poll. The three champions of the Playoff era — Ohio State in 2014, then Alabama, then Clemson — were ranked sixth, third and second, respectively, in the debut coaches poll. Only three teams since 1983 have won the national title despite being unranked in the preseason: Miami (Fla.) in 1983, Brigham Young a year later and Georgia Tech in 1990.
“The first poll is a guess, but if you don’t start out pretty good on the first poll, you’re going to have a hard time being national champion, which is categorically unfair,” Leach said.
Fair or not, it’s the lingering impact of the polls despite the shift in postseason format. They no longer decide, technically speaking, which team takes home a crystal football in early January. But they remain a factor, as an influencer, a primer and even a preseason decider as to which teams will dominate the national conversation. In that sense — and despite college football’s changing landscape — some things never change.