Don’t write off virtual reality just yet
But don’t hold your breath for technology to take hold as hoped
Virtual reality risks going the way of 3D TV, namely nowhere.
VR almost certainly has a brighter upside in the home than
3D ever had. And yet the unflattering parallels between 3D TV and VR appear all too real. Hyped VR efforts are off to a tepid start at best, raising the stakes for industry executives banking on a better long-term outcome.
Recall that at the beginning of this decade, many of the largest companies in the tech and entertainment industries trumpeted three-dimensional television as a newly-immersive showpiece for your home theater, a promise to put you right smack into the center of the action.
The stampede to 3D glory in the living room never happened. Consumers then were reluctant to spend for higher-priced TVs. There was little fresh content. Viewers balked at having to wear funky eyeglasses.
Fast-forward to today, and you see similar impediments with virtual reality. The most engaging VR consumer systems currently available — the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive and Sony PlayStation VR— not only are pricey, but also complicated to set up. For now, anyway, these must be tethered to expensive computers or, in Sony’s case, a PlayStation video game console.
Killer content has been MIA. And yes, you’ve got to wear a large contraption around your noggin. Uncomfortable head gear makes some people feel sick, fatigued or trapped in isolation.
“This is VR 1.0,” Andrew House, CEO of Sony Interactive Entertainment, told USA TODAY in June.
“We’ve got to remove this friction,” agrees Alex Kipman, technical fellow at the operating systems group at Microsoft, which is pursuing a “mixed reality” strategy, blending VR with elements from a different immersive tech, augmented reality (or AR).
The range of VR products along the consumer spectrum deliver very different levels of immersion. At the most basic end are cheap Google Cardboard viewers used with smartphones, which merely provide consumers with a glimpse into the tech’s possibilities.
A better experience, though not one without flaws, comes with step-up mobile headgear, notably Google’s Daydream, and Samsung ’s Gear VR, which incorporates Oculus tech. These work with a limited set of smartphones.
Microsoft’s approach, trickled down from its enterprise-focused HoloLens solution, is to bring out
$299-plus virtual reality bundles starting in October, with goggles that are tethered to more mainstream PCs. Hardware partners include HP, Lenovo, Dell, Acer and Asus.
And then there’s the Vive, Rift or PlayStation VR, which while providing the most vivid experiences, also bring the most challenges. But they require expensive gaming computers or consoles and are yoked to them — all downsides for consumers. PC prices typically cost well north of
$1,000, though there are somewhat cheaper options available.
The upshot: Prices have been cut, demand has weakened and analyst forecasts slashed.
Still, SuperData Research predicts consumer revenues for the virtual reality market will reach
$28.3 billion in 2020, up from
$1.8 billion in 2016.
WHAT TO WATCH?
Getting people to sample quality VR is one hurdle. Only about onethird of consumers between 18 and 64 have tried VR, according to research by the Magid consulting firm. But there’s also reason for optimism in the numbers:
“It takes time for the content, the business and the price to all converge into a true massmarket phenomenon.”
Jason Rubin, vice president of content at Oculus
84% of those who’ve used VR on a mobile device would recommend the technology to others; 86% of those who’ve used it on a PC or console would do the same.
Netflix VR and Minecraft VR are among the most-used apps so far, Magid’s research says.
Facebook, Google, Samsung, Sony and HTC are among the bigtime believers, best evidenced by the $3 billion Facebook paid to acquire Oculus in 2014.
Oculus’ Rift, though, has been a soft seller, and the company recently lowered the headset’s price, and its Touch controller accessory, not once but twice — lastly under a summer promotion that brought the combined sum down to $399, about $200 under their regular cost. (It’s back up to
$499 after Labor Day.)
The spin from Jason Rubin, vice president of content at Oculus, is that this has been the company’s plan all along and that seasonal pricing is the normal course of doing business. “Just like countless forms of revolutionary technology, it takes time for the content, the business and the price to all converge into a true mass market phenomenon,” he told USA TODAY.
IN SEARCH OF THE ‘KILLER APP’
That magic trifecta isn’t guaranteed. The annals of technology are packed with examples of hardware and software innovations that didn’t quite take off because it didn’t hit the consumer sweet spot. (Remember Google Glass and Betamax?) VR’s big players are mindful of what’s missing: the killer app that will make VR the hoverboard of the holiday shopping season.
“3D TV didn’t take off because the content wasn’t compelling enough and filmmakers didn’t feel the need to create something unique for it. Our focus is on making it easy for people to jump into VR and easy for developers to create for VR,” Rubin said.
Experimentation remains the order of the day. “Half the fun is this ongoing discovery as we figure out what the new language is for telling stories and enabling users to interact with VR,” Samsung ’s director of immersive products Tom Harding says.
By way of example, he points to architects who’ve been using Gear VR to give clients tours of buildings ahead of construction, letting them envision, say, how the changing sun alters how inhabitants will experience the place during different times of the day.
Samsung has an installed user base of some 5 million Gear VR units ($129 for headset including controller, but requiring a relatively recent Galaxy S or Note phone), and while that’s a relatively impressive number on the surface, some of the headsets were given away free as part of promotions.
SOLVING THE LONELINESS DILEMMA
To make VR a success it will also need to address an implied weakness:
Isolation.
Linden Lab, which made a name for itself as the developer of the Second Life virtual world, recently opened the “creator beta” to its Sansar social VR platform.
Another company with designs on social VR, AltspaceVR, announced in July that it would be shutting down after running out of cash, before apparently getting a stay of execution from investors that will keep its virtual doors open for now.
And as you’d expect from the world’s leading social network, Facebook has bold ambitions to make VR a place to hang out— Facebook Spaces for the Rift and Oculus Rooms for the Gear VR are early attempts.
AR VS. VR: CAN BOTH SURVIVE?
Facebook is simultaneously embracing AR, which some people mistakenly confuse with VR. Both exploit computer vision. Chief difference: In VR, you’re fully enmeshed in an immersive environment, obfuscating your physical surroundings. AR supplies more of a see-through experience as digital characters and objects invade real-life.
Is this a Beta vs. VHS situation in the making, with only one technology destined to survey?
Facebook’s Rubin and other VR proponents say no, they are complementary experiences with a lot of the same challenges and technology. “The advancement of one will benefit the other,” he says.