NBA lottery proposal evens odds for top pick
When the NBA’s competition committee meets to discuss lottery reform this week, it will be presented with a proposal designed to disincentivize the race for the league’s worst record and best odds to win the draft lottery.
The proposal has three main elements, four people with direct knowledge of the plan told USA TODAY Sports. They requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
uThe three highest lottery seeds would each be allocated 14% odds to win the lottery, com- pared to the 25%, 19.9% and 15.6% for those three teams in the current lottery system, which has been in place since 2005. The odds for the remaining lottery would decrease smoothly, with approximately a 1%-2% difference between lottery teams.
uThe number of picks determined by the lottery will increase to four, compared to three in the current system. This means that the highest lottery seed would receive no worse than the fifth pick, the second seed no worse than the sixth pick, the third seed no worse than the seventh pick and the fourth seed no worse than the eighth pick. Under the current system, the first seed can receive no worse than the fourth pick and the second seed no worse than the fifth pick, etc.
uThe new system would begin with the 2019 draft, giving teams time to prepare and plan. Team owners could vote on the proposal at the NBA board of governors meeting at the end of September.
Adopting this proposal is not a slam-dunk. Some mid- and smallmarket teams believe this will hurt their chances of acquiring a franchise-altering player through the draft. Some of those teams are resigned to the fact that those type of players will not join their team in free agency or are leery to trade for them knowing it will be difficult to retain them.
Owners voted on lottery reform before the start of the 201415 season, and it was a similar proposal as the one up for discussion now. While 17 voted in favor of lottery reform, it requires three-quarters of a vote to pass.
There were mitigating factors in 2014. The league knew a new TV deal and new collective bargaining agreement would impact team decisions and was hesitant of adopting lottery reform before those two things were in place.
But lottery reform has remained a topic since then. In general, the NBA dislikes the notion of a team starting the season with the viewpoint that the best outcome is being the worst team, and there is disdain for the perception of tanking.
In 2014, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said, “Frankly the pressure on a lot of our teams, even from their very fans, to somehow underperform, because it’s in some people’s view the most efficient and quickest way to get better. So I think that’s a corrosive perception out there.”
By flattening the lottery odds, the league believes it is removing the idea that a team has to be the worst of the worst to improve. Supporters of the proposal reason that bad teams in need of help can still improve through the draft without tanking.
The league’s proposal is also aimed at reducing mid- and lateseason tanking. With such small percentage differences in lottery odds between teams, moving up a spot or two for improved odds would result in just a marginal difference.