NORTH DAKOTA
Incumbent: Democrat Heidi Heitkamp Inside Elections rating: Tossup 2016 presidential election results: Trump: 63%, Clinton: 27%
Shortly after Trump handily won her state, Heitkamp met with him at his Trump Tower offices amid speculation she was considered for a Cabinet post. She ended up without a nomination and voted against five of Trump’s Cabinet picks, but she broke with her party to support the president’s Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch.
To win re-election, Heitkamp will need to continue to distinguish herself from the Democrats’ national brand, as she did supporting the Keystone XL pipeline, and hope that Trump’s national approval rating stays low.
Republican state Sen. Tom Campbell announced he will challenge Heitkamp, perhaps heading off a bid by GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer, who was considering a run.
By creating an image as a centrist who can work with Trump, Heitkamp may offend liberals, but they’ll vote for her anyway.
Heitkamp appears to be in no hurry to engage in the debate. She has not announced that she is running, but she is paying for campaign staff and advertising, and she ended June with more than $3 million in her campaign coffers.