FLORIDA
Incumbent: Democrat Bill Nelson
Inside Elections rating: Tilt Democratic 2016 presidential election results: Trump: 49%, Clinton: 48%
Nelson’s re-election bid could be his toughest campaign yet.
His home state went for Trump last year. He’s likely to face termlimited GOP Gov. Rick Scott, whose deep pockets and rising popularity make him the most formidable opponent Nelson has faced. Polls indicate lukewarm support at best among Sunshine State voters for the Affordable Care Act, a law Nelson has generally championed and Scott has vehemently opposed.
Nelson, who will turn 75 this month, remains a slight favorite to retain his seat for a few reasons:
1) Trump’s approval ratings remain underwater;
2) Though Scott’s poll numbers have risen recently, Nelson’s net favorability ratings continue to outpace the governor’s; 3) Despite deep concerns about Obamacare’s rising premiums and shrinking insurance options, voters in Florida overwhelmingly panned GOP efforts in Congress to repeal and replace the law.
Hurricane Irma could play an important role in the campaign, as it’s given Scott an opportunity to demonstrate leadership during the crisis, which could boost his approval ratings.