AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD-CARD GAME
USA TODAY Sports’ Jorge L. Ortiz breaks down Tuesday night’s American League wild-card game matching the New York Yankees vs. the visiting Minnesota Twins. The starters: Both teams clinched a playoff spot early enough to line up their top starters, both of them Dominican right-handers. The Yankees’ Luis Severino, coming off a breakout season at 23, had the highest average fastball velocity among starters at 97.6 mph. He finished third in the AL in ERA (2.98) and fourth in strikeouts (230).
The Twins’ Ervin Santana, in his 13th season, was two notches below in ERA (3.28) while tying for the major league lead with three shutouts and five complete games. He has a 6.43 ERA in six starts at the current Yankee Stadium but gave up just two runs in 5 2⁄3 innings in his only outing against the Yankees this year, in New York. Santana’s not overpowering, but when he’s on, he’s tough to solve.
After that?: In a one-game playoff, tomorrow is a luxury you can’t afford to consider. So the Twins will have their second-best starter, Jose Berrios, available in the bullpen to jump in on short notice. Berrios made his first major league relief appearance Friday to prepare. Likewise, slugger Miguel Sano will be ready to pinch-hit even though he was activated only on the season’s final weekend after missing 38 games with a stress reaction in his left shin. For the Yankees, an overpowering bullpen that features Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson and Chad Green could shorten Severino’s outing, unless he’s throwing a gem.
Offensive matters: The Bronx Bombers lived up to their nickname in leading the majors with 241 home runs, 52 of them coming off Aaron Judge’s bat. The Yankees are particularly explosive at home, where they blasted 140 of those long balls. Judge has plenty of help — seven of his teammates hit at least 15 homers — but it’s worth noting he went deep off Santana in the only game he faced the Twins ace.
Minnesota has some capable boppers as well, led by second baseman Brian Dozier (34 home runs), and finished seventh in the majors in runs scored. The Twins throw some speed into the mix, with fleet-footed center fielder Byron Buxton capable of impacting the game in a variety of ways. Outfielder Eddie Rosario emerged as a big contributor after the break, when he hit 17 of his 27 home runs.
Bench mob: Twins manager Paul Molitor is leaning toward using Sano in a pinch-hitting role, which gives him a potent though rusty weapon he can deploy at a key stage of the game. But Minnesota is hard-pressed to match up with the Yankees’ depth. Depending on who starts at first and third, New York manager Joe Girardi might have such valuable bench players as Chase Headley, Aaron Hicks and Ronald Torreyes at his disposal, giving the Yankees a considerable advantage.
In the end: The fact New York has won nine consecutive playoff games against Minnesota doesn’t mean much — the last such meeting was in 2010 — but the disparity between the bullpens is certainly significant. Twins closer Matt Belisle, in his 14th season, had five career saves before notching nine this season. The rest of the bullpen is lacking in credentials as well.
When the Twins were battling for a wild-card spot in mid-September, the Yankees swept them in a three-game series in New York by a combined score of 18-6. Santana gave up only one home run in his outing during the series but yielded 31 over the season, tied for the 10th-highest figure in the majors, and might be particularly vulnerable at Yankee Stadium. Unless Severino stumbles badly in his first-ever postseason start, all the signs point to the Yankees prevailing.