Indians still riding high after streak
Scherzer injury could hurt Nationals
With the wild-card entries into the division series now settled, it’s time to reshuffle the postseason deck and see how every club stacks up in its pursuit of October glory. Here’s our ranking of the championship contenders.
NO. 1: CLEVELAND INDIANS
Why they could win it all: The Indians took off by winning a record-setting 22 consecutive games and never lifted the foot off the accelerator, going 11-3 after the streak ended. Cleveland hitters including Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, etc., have a knack for putting the ball in play but can also hit for extra bases. They had the second-fewest strikeouts in the majors while slugging at a .449 clip, tied for second behind only the Houston Astros.
In addition, the Indians have so many qualified starting pitchers that they’re sending Danny Salazar and 12-game winner Mike Clevinger to the bullpen for the first round. And their major league-best bullpen got Andrew Miller back in the fold in mid-September. Why they could fall short:
Michael Brantley just returned from a seven-week absence, but their outfield picture remains muddled because of the injuryrelated losses of rookie center fielder Bradley Zimmer and Brandon Guyer. Cleveland has tried career second baseman Jason Kipnis in center, a suboptimal scenario.
Consensus: After last year’s near-miss, the Indians are primed to win one more postseason game.
NO. 2: WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Why they could win it all: Provided Max Scherzer’s hamstring injury does not hamper him, the Nationals have the playoffs’ most overpowering starting duo in him and Stephen Strasburg, who figures to get the call for Game 1 of the division series. Third starter Gio Gonzalez is coming off a strong season as well, and they’re backed by a revamped bullpen led by lefty closer Sean Doolittle.
The offense is loaded, with three hitters boasting an OPS above .900 in Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Daniel Murphy, in addition to formidable Bryce Harper once he regains his hitting stroke. Why they could fall short:
Injury-related issues present the biggest concern. Scherzer left his final start of the regular season with a hamstring tweak, and it’s
not clear which game he might start in the NLDS. Harper returned from his bruised knee in the final week, going 1-for-14 in four games.
Consensus: The Nationals have addressed the bullpen woes that dogged them in the past and have all the elements to seriously challenge for the title, or at least finally get past the first round.
NO. 3: LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Why they could win it all: 91
36 through Aug. 25, demonstrating depth and resilience that was lacking in years past. They have a balanced offense with eight hitters who reached double figures in home runs. And by adding Yu Darvish in late July, Los Angeles now has more support for staff ace Clayton Kershaw.
Why they could fall short: A bullpen that showed signs of vulnerability late in the season could prove the Dodgers’ Achilles’ heel if the setup men fail to get the ball to closer extraordinaire Kenley Jansen. Los Angeles finished strong, but that 1-16 skid had to create at least some doubt among its players.
Consensus: The luxury of home-field advantage throughout the postseason could come in handy. Their 54-24 home record was the majors’ best.
NO. 4: HOUSTON ASTROS
Why they could win it all: The majors’ most dynamic and prolific lineup creates myriad ways to score, from hitting the long ball (second with 238 home runs) to manufacturing runs. Houston hitters led all of baseball in on-base percentage and slugging while striking out less than any other club, a nifty trick. No fewer than seven Astros finished with an OPS above .800. The addition of Justin Verlander, who registered a 1.06 ERA in five September appearances and will start Game 1, provided Houston a much-needed seasoned postseason ace. Why they could fall short:
There’s a considerable drop-off in the rotation after Verlander and Dallas Keuchel, with Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Collin McHugh the candidates for the other two spots. The Astros don’t help their pitchers with the gloves nearly as much as the bats. Fangraphs.com ranks them as the second-worst defensive club in the majors.
Consensus: With their deep lineup and abundant athleticism, the Astros might be the most enjoyable team to watch in baseball. But can the pitching staff — including a middling bullpen — rise to the occasion?
NO. 5: CHICAGO CUBS
49-25, the Cubs had the secondbest record in baseball after the All- Star break. Chicago actually scored 14 more runs than it did last year, and it gets production up and down the lineup, with major contributions from versatile players such as Javier Baez and rookie Ian Happ. The starting rotation led the second-half turnaround with a 35-14 record and
3.36 ERA after the break. Why they could fall short:
Whereas the 2016 Cubs had three ace-quality starters in Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta, this year’s edition lacks a horse who can take over a series. Hendricks comes closest, having pitched to a 2.19 ERA in the second half, though he doesn't miss many bats. Arrieta (2.28) was just as sharp but has been battling a hamstring injury.
Consensus: On paper the Cubs look much like the 2016 juggernaut, and most of the key players are the same. Their performance hasn’t been, though, be it because of a championship hangover, regression to the mean or any other reason.
NO. 6: BOSTON RED SOX
Why they could win it all: The indomitable force that is Chris Sale is about to be unleashed in the playoffs for the first time. Sale and the rest of the rotation, which
includes fellow 17-game winner Drew Pomeranz, will be backed up by a bullpen enhanced by the addition of David Price. Closer Craig Kimbrel finished with a 1.43 ERA and a 0.681 WHIP while striking out 49.6% of the batters he faced. Why they could fall short:
The Red Sox hit the fewest home runs in the AL and scored 93 fewer runs than in 2016, when David Ortiz anchored their lineup. With Price now in the bullpen, the starting staff gets shaky after Sale and Pomeranz.
Consensus: It used to be that winning the AL East would prepare a club for any postseason challenge, but the Red Sox now have two formidable opponents ahead in the Astros and, likely, the Indians. Both won more than 100 games and appear better suited for a World Series appearance than Boston.
NO. 7: NEW YORK YANKEES
Why they could win it all: Power goes a long way in the playoffs, especially if it’s coming from both the bats and the arms. The Yankees bullpen can be overwhelming, as the Minnesota Twins found out in the wild-card game. And Aaron Judge is not the only hitter wielding a potent bat. Nine Yankees reached double figures in home runs, with Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius each belting at least 25. Why they could fall short:
It’s one thing to win a single game with the bullpen, another to expect the relievers to carry the weight for a whole series. New York needs some length from starters Sonny Gray, CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino. They will have a stern test in the Indians’ multipronged offense. Consensus: The competition gets steeper immediately. The trump card could be Judge, who had a scorching September and has the ability to change a series with a couple of swings.
NO. 8: DIAMONDBACKS/ROCKIES
Why they could win it all: The Diamondbacks rotation struck out the second-most hitters in the league and has the arms to give any opponent trouble, with Zack Greinke as the ace and lefty Robbie Ray a strong No. 2. The acquisition of J.D. Martinez, who blasted 29 homers in 62 games with Arizona, added a power dimension to an offense that relied heavily on MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt. The Rockies have a potent 1-2 punch in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, both game-changing players who could tilt a series Colorado’s way. Why they could fall short:
Goldschmidt’s late-season slump —a .171 average, three homers from Sept. 1 on — is a troubling sign. With top starter Jon Gray out until Game 3 of the division series, Colorado will have to rely on rookie German Marquez and lefty Chase Anderson in the first two games against the Dodgers. Both had ERAs over 4.30.
Consensus: The Diamondbacks won their last six games against the Dodgers, and Game 1 starter Ray went 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA in five starts against them. The Dodgers deserve to be favored, but the Diamondbacks will be a tough out — much tougher than a Rockies team with far too many pitching questions.