Red Sox-Astros preview
Breaking down the American League Division Series between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros.
For starters: Game 1, Thursday, 4:07 ET: Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (15-8, 3.36). Game 2, Friday: Drew Pomeranz (17-6,
3.32) vs. Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90). Game 3, Sunday, 2:38: TBA vs. TBA. Game 4 (if nec.), Monday. Game 5 (if nec.), Wednesday.
27 outs: The late-season addition of Verlander added an ace to the Astros’ deep stable of starting pitchers already fronted by sinkerballing lefty Dallas Keuchel. Though the Houston club arguably does not boast a starting pitcher to match electric Red Sox ace Chris Sale, Astros manager A.J. Hinch has more compelling options than his counterpart, John Farrell, for starting Games 3 and 4. Against a Red Sox team that fared well against heavy ground-ball pitchers in the regular season, Hinch might favor fly-ball heavy options such as Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock for the latter games of the series over grounder-inducing choices Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. Boston, meanwhile, will pick from among veterans Rick Porcello and Doug Fister, both of whom were shaky in 2017, and young Eduardo Rodriguez, who showed flashes of brilliance amid inconsistency. In the bullpen, the Red Sox again feature the biggest marquee name in dominant closer Craig Kimbrel, but the Astros again have the edge in terms of depth, with excellent setup men including Joe Musgrove, Chris Devenski and Will Harris to pitch in front of closer Ken Giles.
Keep an eye on: The Astros appear to have the deeper team on both sides of the ball, but they do feature one notable weakness: Catchers Brian McCann and Evan Gattis combined to throw out only
12% of baserunners during the regular season, the lowest rate in the majors in 2017. The Red Sox run the bases well, with guys such as Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts all swiping bags at good rates. Against the homer-happy Houston club, Boston will need to scrap to keep pace, and pushing the pace could be a key to exploiting an area of concern for the Astros.
Close and late: Boston’s bullpen was good in the regular season, and the club managed a 15-3 record in extra-inning games. But the Sox’s most successful regular-season setup options — Matt Barnes, Joe Kelley and Addison Reed — all have their warts. David Price looked dominant in five relief outings after returning from injury in September and should play a big role in the Sox’s October bullpen picture, but few pitchers in baseball are as overpowering as Kimbrel in short bursts. With Boston, the six-time All-Star has made more one-plus inning appearances than he ever did in his early career, and Kimbrel has fared well in such outings. Farrell might need to make liberal use of the unhittable righty if his other pitchers work their way into jams in the eighth.
In the end: Like all baseball outcomes, postseason series are fickle, and the Astros undoubtedly look like the more complete team on paper. But the hunch here is that Sale flourishes while pitching in the first postseason of his career. The lanky, fiery lefty seems perfectly tailored for October dominance. Red Sox in 5.