Five reasons the raises you’ve been getting could get bigger

Average U.S. wage gains have been frustratingly modest despite an unemployment rate that has been under 5% since early 2016. But don’t despair: Bigger raises may be on the way.

Low unemployment generally makes it harder for employers to find qualified workers, forcing them to boost pay. But the annual increase in average hourly earnings has hovered at about 2.5% since late 2015, Labor Department figures show. That’s up from about 2% in prior years but below the 3%-plus economists anticipated.

There are signs that the small raises you’ve been getting could soon get bigger:

More job openings. Employers advertised a record

6.2 million job openings in July, and businesses are chasing a shrinking pool of uncommitted workers. There were 1.5 unemployed Americans for each job opening in July, down from

6.7 jobless people for each vacancy in 2009. Something ’s got to give, and that something will probably be your paycheck as firms work harder to attract and retain workers.

Employers can’t find workers. The share of small businesses that said they had positions they couldn’t fill was at 31% in August, close to a 16-year high, according to a National Federation of Independent Business survey and Capital Economics.

Job switchers get bigger raises. Full-time workers who switch jobs get yearly raises that are a half-percentage point larger than their counterparts who stay in the same position, according to the latest ADP Workforce Vitality Report.

Minimum wages rise.

More jurisdictions are lifting minimum wages. States such as California and New York are gradually moving toward $15 an hour. could push up pay for higher-level employees.

Slack in the labor market diminishes. In August, there were 5.3 million part-time workers who preferred full-time jobs. That’s still above the pre-recession level of 4.6 million but below 6 million a year ago.