La Niña to stir up winter’s forecast

Love it or hate it, winter is coming.

And what can we expect?

A dry, mild winter is likely across most of the southern tier of the U.S., thanks to a developing La Niña, meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. However, parts of the northern tier of the nation could be walloped by a colder and wetter winter, they said.

La Niña typically brings aboveaverage precipitation and colder-than-average temperatures along the northern tier of the U.S. and below-normal precipitation and drier conditions across the South, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the prediction center.

As for snow, the climate pattern often dumps greater-thanaverage snowfall around the Great Lakes and in the northern Rockies and less-than-average amounts in the Mid-Atlantic region, he said.

The big snowstorms and blizzards that plague the East Coast tend to be more likely in El Niño winters, Halpert said.

Northern Florida and southern parts of Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina are the most likely states to experience a drier-than-average winter. As for unusually wet — and likely snowy — areas, shovels and plows should get plenty of use in Montana, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana.

Despite the predicted precipitation, a drought is expected to persist in the northern Plains since the ground tends to be frozen throughout the winter.

Most of New Mexico and Texas are likely to get a warmer-thanaverage winter.

Overall, La Niña has a 55% to 65% chance of developing before winter sets in, the Climate Prediction Center said. “We predict it will be weak and potentially short-lived, but it could still shape the character of the upcoming winter,” Halpert said.

La Niña is the cool counterpart to El Niño, which two years ago dominated the winter of 2015-16, the USA’s warmest on record.

AccuWeather agrees with NOAA that the southern Plains, Southwest and California can expect a milder and drier winter than last season. It also forecasts a cold, snowy winter in the Northwest and northern Plains.

However, the company thinks a chilly winter is in store for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, particularly when compared with last year.