Trying to make sense of College Football Playoff
The race for the College Football Playoff is heating up as the season heads into the final weekend of October. Successfully predicting what will happen in the next six weekends requires deep analysis, intuition and luck.
In the three years of the new system, two schools from the same conference have not been included in the field of four. That possibility grows with each game as Alabama and Georgia continue to impress by dominating their opponents. Should the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs meet as unbeatens in the Southeastern Conference championship game, the loser will have a strong a case to make against other conference champions.
Every Pac-12 team already has one loss. The Big 12 and Atlantic Coast Conference have just one unbeaten each — TCU and Miami (Fla.), respectively. It’s looking likely we might have one or more major conference champions with two losses. That occurred last year with Penn State, and the Nittany Lions were left out in favor of Ohio State even though they beat the Buckeyes.
This year, Penn State won’t have to worry about being left out if it beats Ohio State this week and wins the Big Ten.
Should the committee frown upon two schools from the same league, Notre Dame is another school that can get into the field without winning a conference championship. The 6-1 Irish lost by one point to Georgia but have proceeded to dominate the rest of their opponents, including impressive defeats of Michigan State and Southern California.
The problem for Notre Dame is its ridiculously difficult remaining schedule that is both a blessing and a curse. Its last five opponents have a combined record of 26-8, including games against No. 15 North Carolina State, No. 8 Miami and No. 20 Stanford. One slip-up likely knocks the Irish out.
In the end, that road will be too tough with their seasonending game at Stanford likely being the one that knocks them out.
So which team grabs the final spot? TCU, overlooked in the first year of the Playoff, gets the nod by winning the Big 12. Even if the Horned Frogs slip up at Oklahoma on Nov. 11, they should get another crack at the Sooners in the conference championship game. A win there would see them headed to the semifinals.
The picture of where the contenders stand will be made more clear when the committee’s first rankings are released Oct. 31.
Projected pairings for the New Year’s Six Bowls Jan. 1:
Rose Bowl semifinal — Penn State vs. Georgia
Jan. 1: Sugar Bowl semifinal — Alabama vs. TCU
Dec. 29: Cotton Bowl — Washington vs. Oklahoma
Dec. 30: Fiesta Bowl — Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
Dec. 30: Orange Bowl — Clemson vs. Wisconsin
Jan. 1: Peach Bowl — Virginia Tech vs. Central Florida