Trump casts long shadow over the race for governor of Virginia
WASHINGTON – President Trump hasn’t hit the campaign trail in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, but his presence is clearly felt in the first competitive statewide contest since his election last year.
The Nov. 7 election battle between Virginia’s current Democratic lieutenant governor, Ralph Northam, and former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie could be a bellwether for Trump’s impact on midterm elections across the country next year.
Northam held a narrow 4-point lead over Gillespie among likely Virginia voters who are either decided or leaning toward a candidate in a Suffolk University poll released Thursday. That lead is within the margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points for the poll. Trump’s approval rating stands at
37% in the state and 63% of survey respondents said the country is on the wrong track, according to the poll.
Northam, 58, a pediatric neurologist and former Army physician, said his election would “absolutely” be a repudiation of Trump. He said he wants to take the state to the next level on jobs, education and health care while promoting an “inclusive” Virginia.
“People are watching to see what direction this country is going to go in,” Northam told USA TODAY.
But Gillespie, seen as an establishment Republican who has distanced himself from Trump, said the race is all about Virginia and fixing its “lagging” economy.
“I’ve got 20 different specific detailed policy proposals to make life better for all Virginians, and the lieutenant governor just doesn’t have that,” said Gillespie, a former lobbyist who also served as counselor to George W. Bush.
Save for a “vote Ed Gillespie” tweet, Trump has been largely missing from the race.
But nearly a third of likely Virginia voters say Trump is a factor in their vote for governor, and 45% say they see their vote for governor as a way to send a message — disapproval for 28% and approval for 17% — to Trump and the Republicans who control Congress, according to a survey released Oct. 18 by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. A quarter of independents said they want to send a message of disapproval.
“If that’s true, that is a pretty strong headwind for any Republican to try to deal with in a battleground state or a battleground congressional district,” said Quentin Kidd, director of the center.
National parties have poured money and staff into the race, while former presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, former vice president Joe Biden and Vice President Pence have campaigned for the candidates.
Democrats would be “demoralized,” for a while at least, if Northam lost in a state that Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton carried by 5 points, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. If Gillespie loses, he said, “it’s going to signal to some Republicans that Trump is quite a burden to bear and that will increase their worries in 2018.”
The race to replace term-limited Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat, is one of two statewide elections on Nov.
7. In New Jersey, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Murphy appears safely ahead, with a 15.5-point lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, according to a RealClearPolitics average of recent polls.
Virginia is a good test for whether Democrats can convert Trump resistance into votes.
“The question is, has the left really got some new energy level or is it just a bunch of hype by a small number of people?” said Rep. Dave Brat, R-Va., a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus who has campaigned for Gillespie.