UPHEAVAL ON WAY
Saturday’s schedule could create more mayhem in rankings
After a chaotic weekend that upended the status quo, ruined the championship hopes of several contenders and shook up the College Football Playoff chase, what will the Football Bowl Subdivision do for an en- core? It’s a question that doesn’t really need to be asked, since we already know the answer: College football will double down on the disorder and mayhem.
Last weekend saw seven games between ranked teams, but it was an unranked team that caused the greatest havoc. Iowa’s 55-24 drubbing of Ohio State knocked the Buckeyes out of the title hunt, for starters, and in conjunction with Penn State’s narrow loss to Michigan State pared the Big Ten Conference’s path to the Playoff from three roads to just one.
Now the Big Ten turns to Wisconsin, hoping that the Badgers can run through the rest of the regular season unscathed and defeat the winner of the East Division — very likely one of Ohio State or Michigan State — in the conference title
game to complete an undefeated regular season. It would set a worrisome precedent to leave an unbeaten Power Five champion out of the top four, as Wisconsin athletics director Barry Alvarez said this week. But to simply place 13-0 Wisconsin into the Playoff ignores three factors.
One is Notre Dame, ranked third in the recent Playoff poll, which at 11-1 would be difficult to unseat from the top four. The second is Clemson, which despite an a loss to Syracuse seemingly controls its path to a semifinal. And the third is Oklahoma, which can make a second grand statement in two weeks by defeating TCU.
All Wisconsin can do is focus on its side of the bracket, hopeful that, despite consistent concerns by the Playoff selection committee over a flimsy strength of schedule, being an unbeaten major-conference champion would serve as the ultimate trump card when the committee meets for its final unveiling in early December.
“We look at a number of strength-of-schedule metrics,” Playoff selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt said. “But consistently over the course of all of those metrics that we looked at, Wisconsin had the lowest strength of schedule amongst any of the 25 teams ranked this week.”
Wisconsin will have the chance to improve its strength of schedule with games against Iowa and Michigan, beginning the suddenly trendy Hawkeyes on Saturday. It’s good news and bad: Wisconsin gets a top-25 opponent, which will help their strength of schedule, but after that impressive win against Ohio State, will the Hawkeyes be too much to handle?
There’s the weekend’s first chance at additional chaos — an Iowa win against Wisconsin that would almost officially end the Big Ten’s hopes of sending a team into the Playoff for the fourth time in four years. But it’s not the only matchup with enormous postseason implications.
The Big 12 Conference’s slate leads with the Sooners and Horned Frogs, with the winner putting a stranglehold on the regular-season crown and earning a spot in the league’s rechristened championship game, played at AT&T Stadium in North Texas on Dec. 2. An Oklahoma win would maintain the Sooners’ push toward the top four, which gained steam with last weekend’s shootout win against rival Oklahoma State yet lost some luster with Ohio State’s slide from the title picture.
“Any challenge excites us,” TCU safety Niko Small said. “Whoever you put in front of us, we’re going to make sure it’s at least a hard game for you.”
In the Atlantic Coast Conference, Miami (Fla.) faces its greatest test to date with a home matchup against Notre Dame — marking the first time in decades that one of college football’s most marketable rivalries stands for more than mere bragging rights. Notre Dame has already proved itself to the commit- tee, if largely due to its narrow loss to Georgia, but the Hurricanes have yet to receive the benefit of the doubt: Miami’s been discounted for close calls against inferior competition, so a high-profile win against the Irish would significantly improve the team’s Playoff résumé.
“I think what our coaches try to preach to us is the idea of a faceless opponent,” Notre Dame linebacker Drue Tranquill said. “We have to focus on our game plan and focus on what’s going to occur. They’re a bunch of 18- to 22-yearold guys just like we are. We have to focus on execution of our game plan in order to win.”
And then there’s the Southeastern Conference. Georgia must pass a stiff test at Auburn, which brings its own Playoff hopes into the second Saturday of November despite holding two losses. Tenth in this week’s Playoff rankings, the Tigers theoretically can play their way into a semifinal by knocking off the Bulldogs this Saturday, rival Alabama to end November and then earning a second win against Georgia in the SEC championship game.
Meanwhile, a beaten-up Alabama team will get Mississippi State’s best shot on the road. The injuries are adding up for the Tide, specifically on defense, and the Bulldogs are quietly putting together a season worthy of consideration for a New Year’s Six bowl. Would a Mississippi State win be an upset? Sure. But it wouldn’t be too shocking, if that makes any sense, when considering the Bulldogs’ offensive production and Alabama’s mounting injuries on defense.
Now, take stock of how the Playoff picture might change come Sunday morning. If the status quo holds, the top five won’t differ: Georgia and Alabama, then Notre Dame, then Clemson, and then Oklahoma. But an Auburn win would create a new No. 1, very likely Alabama — as long as the Tide win. A Notre Dame loss would vault Miami at least into the top five, if not into the top four. An Oklahoma loss would place TCU into the Big 12 driver’s seat, though it might hurt the league’s overall chances at placing its champion into a national semifinal.
So that’s where things stand. At best, the Playoff debate can solidify around a clear top five: the two SEC teams, Notre Dame, Clemson and Oklahoma, with the Sooners the team most likely to benefit from an Alabama or Georgia loss.
At worst, on the other hand, college football’s title chase takes another swerve toward anarchy. OU loses to TCU. Miami tops Notre Dame. Iowa knocks off the Badgers. Auburn gets the better of Georgia. You’d say that sounds crazy, but that’s not true: it’s just the final weeks of college football’s regular season.
GAMES YOU SHOULDN’T MISS
It’s impossible to watch every game. (I know. I’ve tried.) Until the invention of picture-in-picture-in-picture television technology, I’m here to help. In each time window, here are this Saturday’s games you can’t afford to miss (times Eastern):
Noon: No. 16 Michigan State at No. 11 Ohio State (Fox). They’ll meet with the Big Ten East Division on the line and with the Spartans’ heavy underdogs, which doesn’t make too much sense given how each team heads into Saturday.
Afternoon: No. 2 Georgia and No. 10 Auburn (3:30 p.m., CBS). A win here for Auburn doesn’t change things for the Bulldogs, who can still make the Playoff by winning out, but it would solidify the Tigers’ place as a legitimate threat to reach a semifinal with two losses.
Prime time: No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 6 Miami (8 p.m., ABC). Not to discount the importance of TCU at Oklahoma, but come on — this is Notre Dame and Miami. After dark: Boise State at Colorado State (10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network). There’s a slight shortage of high-profile games in the late hours, so this vital divisional matchup in the Mountain West will have to do.
THE UNELIMINATED LIST
Most of the FBS has already been eliminated from the chase for the College Football Playoff. Fortunately, a few teams remain. After weeks of looking at the eliminated, let’s flip the script: By conference, here’s who remains in the CFP picture.
American: Central Florida. ACC: Clemson, Miami. Big 12: Oklahoma, TCU. Big Ten: Wisconsin. Conference USA: None. Independents: Notre Dame. MAC: None. Mountain West: None. Pac-12: Washington. SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Georgia. Sun Belt: None.