Trump doles out deals in China, but will they stick?
BEIJING – President Trump practiced the art of the international deal in China, watching proudly Thursday as Chinese officials signed agreements to buy another $250 billion in American products.
The question is whether the president’s transactional approach to foreign policy leads to long-term deals down the road.
While China agreed to buy more soybeans, aircraft engines and computer chips, the government did not make specific commitments to open up more of their markets, discuss intellectual property disputes or to pressure North Korea into giving up nuclear weapons.
The president, who sees himself as the consummate dealmaker, expressed confidence this week that sales agreements will lead to more cooperation over trade disputes and efforts to disarm North Korea.
“China can fix this (North Korea) problem easily and quickly,” Trump said after meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, referring to the “menace” of Kim Jong Un’s nuclear weapons programs.
Trump also criticized various Chinese trade policies and protested the “out of control” U.S. trade deficit with China — though he did not blame China for trade problems, placing the fault instead on his predecessors in the White House.
“After all, who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country for the benefit of its citizens? I give China great credit,” Trump said during the pivotal stop on his 10day tour of Asia. “In actuality, I do blame past administrations for allowing this out-of-control trade deficit to take place and to grow.”
Yet some analysts said Trump’s transactional approach neglects the need for long-term changes, whether it involves China trade policy — or anything else the president might want from another country.
“Deals are no substitute for policy change,” said David Dollar, a senior fellow on the Chinese economy at The Brookings Institution.
In the case of China, soon to be the world’s largest economy, Dollar said: “What would really change the relationship is opening up new markets in areas from autos to entertainment to social media. There seems to have been little discussion of this kind of policy change either in preparation or during the trip.”
As Elizabeth Economy, director of Asia Studies with the Council on Foreign Relations, put it: “Deals are cheap wins and represent a cheap substitute for long-term strategic gains for U.S. companies in market access.”
All of that “requires long-term, multilevel strategy, not simply a transactional mentality,” she said.
The deals announced this week in Beijing “help the Chinese placate president Trump during a two-day state visit,” Economy continued, “but they don’t require China to change the way it does business.”
Xi, who on Wednesday feted Trump with a tour of the Forbidden City, a colorful opera and a dinner, told his American counterpart he is looking for “a new starting point” in relations between the U.S. and China.
“For China,” he said, “cooperation is the only real choice, only win-win can lead to an even better future.”
Yet China has been resistant to Trump’s new overtures on trade and North Korea. Xi and his aides have said their influence with North Korea is limited.
They have also defended their economic practices, saying they are determined to protect Chinese business and industry, and that the Americans have questionable practices and closed markets of their own.
Trump has looked to make deals throughout his Asia trip. During his first two stops, he asked the leaders of Japan and South Korea to buy more U.S. military goods, and both replied they are eager to do so.
Like any salesman, Trump flattered his would-be partners — especially in China, where he lauded his “chemistry” with the Chinese leader and lauded him as a “very special man.”
The butter-up approach worked both ways. From a golf match in Japan to a tour of the Forbidden City in Beijing, Asian leaders seemed to compete to be the prize flatterer of Trump.
Still, the deals Trump often announces are not really new, the Brookings Institution’s Dollar said. Many have been in the works for a long time or are extensions of existing agreements involving things such as agricultural products, he said.