Can Musk deliver a semitruck revolution?
Tesla’s plans to disrupt the semitruck business with a new electric big rig could create a new revolution — and CEO Elon Musk isn’t holding back on the hyperbole.
Musk is pledging a groundbreaking advancement Thursday night at an event near Los Angeles.
“This will blow your mind clear out of your skull and into an alternate dimension,” Musk said Sunday in a tongue-in-cheek tweet.
The race to deliver electric trucks could eventually pose economic benefits to consumers if the technology lowers the price of transportation and reduces emissions that contribute to climate change. Still, industry experts are skeptical that Tesla, known for its Model S and X electric luxury vehicles, can overhaul the long-haul trucking business. Trucks that deliver goods in cities are a better fit for current elec- tric-vehicle technology because they generally don’t need to travel far in a day, can be centrally charged and can take advantage of braking in stopand-go traffic to recharge batteries.
Today’s batteries limit the driving range of electric cars to a few hundred miles at most. That’s the main reason why diesel continues to power most heavy trucks, which typically travel
500 or more miles on a given day. But disruption is coming. Musk has promised to “deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transportation, while being safer and really fun to operate” — and Tesla’s not the only one vowing to lead the way.
“I know several of our customers who have had the opportunity to see and or drive the Tesla truck, so I know it’s a reality,” said Troy Clarke, CEO of truckmaker Navistar. With electric trucks in general, “there is still limited range, but these are technical issues everyone has confidence will ultimately be solved.”
Scott Corwin, who leads Deloitte’s Future of Mobility consulting division, said electric trucks will appeal to shipping companies as battery costs fall and lower maintenance costs prove appealing. “When you think about gas mileage with long-haul trucks, the average miles per gallon are really low, so they’re consuming a really significant amount of fuel. If we can move to electric, the cost of electricity will make the cost go down,” Corwin said.
Aiding the transition is the Obama administration’s implementation of stricter fuel-economy standards for heavy-duty trucks. They are expected to cut emissions and improve economy from 6.6 miles per gallon in 2017 to
8.8 mpg in 2027. It might not sound like much, but in the trucking world, a
33% improvement would be huge. Jason Roycht, vice president and head of parts maker Bosch’s commercial vehicle and off-road business unit in the U.S., said truckers will make the switch to electric as soon as it’s cheaper. “There is actually a strong case to be made that electrification in various forms can actually not only provide a benefit … in terms of the environment, but can also provide a total cost-ofownership advantage,” Roycht said.
Some industry leaders are skeptical electric trucks will lead the way to improved efficiency. “There’s just certain limits to not only the technology and the maturity of the batteries themselves, but also … the weight impact it has and the power performance,” said Keith Brandis, vice president of product planning for Volvo Trucks.