Where Playoff field stands now
Handful of teams, but not 10-0 UCF, in play for semifinals as season winds down
The chase for the college football championship is billed as an inclusive affair, with every member of the Football Bowl Subdivision on even and equal footing until the first weekend of the regular season, when the nation’s best slowly begins to pull away. It’s a lie, to be blunt.
No team from the Group of Five — a group encompassing half of the FBS — can play for the national title. This is illustrated most clearly in the case of Central Florida, which continues to destroy each opponent in its path but seems destined to max out in the midteens (15th this week) of the College Football Playoff rankings. In this week’s poll, released Tuesday evening, the Knights were passed by Mississippi State, which lost to Alabama, Auburn and Georgia by a combined 74 points.
“We talked at length this week about Mississippi State,” selection committee chairman Kirby Hocutt said, “and the selection committee has been extremely impressed with their tough schedule.”
Another half of the Power Five, give or take, is essentially eliminated in August, though technically still alive until that first loss.
The reality of the situation is that there are fewer than 40 teams that can legitimately compete for the championship in any odd year, and even that number might be a stretch. And now, with two weeks left until the postsea- son, that number has been trimmed into the single digits.
The latest Playoff poll saw a slight rearrangement of the top 12, with Miami (Fla.) swapping spots with Clemson, but no new names, solidifying the idea that college football’s postseason race has come into stark focus. Here’s what we know:
The winner of the Southeastern Conference is in. That’s certainly true in the case of Alabama, topping the rankings for the second week in a row heading into Saturday’s game with Auburn. The Tigers can punch their ticket for the SEC championship game with a win, which would lead to a rematch with Georgia.
The winner of the Atlantic Coast Conference is in, whether that’s Clemson or Miami, though Clemson could paint itself into a corner by losing this weekend’s rivalry game to South Carolina. As long as they top the Tigers in early December, the unbeaten Hurricanes could still reach a national semifinal with a loss Friday at Pittsburgh.
No. 4 Oklahoma is in from the Big 12 Conference by closing with victories against West Virginia — an expected result, even if quarterback Baker Mayfield won’t start the game — and in the league championship game, with TCU the Sooners’ likely opponent.
And Ohio State, ranked ninth, can become the first two-loss team to reach the Playoff in the format’s four-year history by defeating rival Michigan on Saturday and topping Wisconsin to win the Big Ten Conference championship. Even if a distance behind the top four, matchups are in the Buckeyes’ favor: At least four teams currently ranked ahead of Ohio State will lose during the next two weeks, opening a path for Urban Meyer and his program to make its third semifinal appearance in four years.
The greatest chance for Armageddon comes from the SEC, where an Alabama loss to Georgia in the title game would create a massive dilemma for the selection committee. It could pit two of the committee’s favorites in a battle for the fourth spot, should the status quo hold in the Big 12 and the ACC: Alabama, 12-1 but the second-ranked team from the SEC, against Ohio State, 11-2 but winners of the Big Ten.
In addition, TCU could get the better of Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game. Miami could beat Pittsburgh and then hang tight with Clemson, leaving the Hurricanes as an option for a topfour finish. Likewise with Clemson, which has an impressive strength of schedule and could conceivably remain an option with a close loss in the ACC title game.
But even this sort of chaotic close wouldn’t change one fact: The fourteam field of national semifinalists is coming from a select group of teams. All that’s left to decide is the order.