Tax-cut passage is make-or-break for Trump
“They’ve made that promise (to pass a tax-cut bill) ... This is what the base expects.” Jennifer Duffy, “The Cook Political Report”
WASHINGTON – For a man who centered his campaign for the White House around the promise of “winning,” President Trump faces what may be a makeor-break political moment: the tax cut bill.
Signing a major tax cut into law would give Trump some political momentum as he tries to persuade lawmakers to tighten immigration rules, pass an infrastructure bill, and repeal and replace President Obama’s health care law — issues that have frustrated the president throughout his first months in office.
Trump’s political standing also could affect Republican prospects in next November’s congressional elections.
“His brand was winning, and he needs a win,” Republican political strategist Bruce Haynes said.
Trump and the congressional Republicans said they expect to secure enough GOP votes to pass a major tax bill, perhaps by the end of the year.
He has repeatedly promised to deliver Americans a major tax cut as a Christmas present.
The president is expected to exude similar confidence when he continues to stump for his tax bill during an appearance in Missouri. That just happens to be the home state of Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, who faces a potentially difficult re-election battle next year.
“Stock market at a new high, unemployment at a low,” Trump tweeted before leaving the White House. “We are winning and TAX CUTS will shift our economy into high gear!”
Many politicians believe that, as in other areas of life, success breeds success. Yet the inability to pass a tax bill could create a whole new set of political problems for Trump and will complicate the rest of his agenda. It would likely revive internal feuds between the maverick president and congressional Republicans, particularly Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
“He’ll take all the credit if it’s enacted and none of the blame if it fails,” said economic analyst Stan Collender, professor of public policy at Georgetown University. “The success will be his, the failure will be McConnell’s and the Senate Democrats’ fault.”
Some Democrats, meanwhile, said Trump should be careful what he wishes for.
They said the proposed Republican tax bill benefits only the wealthy, actually costs the middle class, and will wind up hurting GOP candidates at election time.
Jesse Lehrich, communications director with the Democratic-leaning Organizing for Action, challenged the “conventional wisdom” that failing to pass tax cuts would be a “political disaster” for the Republicans.
Passing it would be politically toxic, he said.
“It’s already about as unpopular as any ‘tax cut’ proposal can be, and were it to become law, millions of middle-class families would soon learn they’re taking home less money to subsidize billionaires and big corporations,” Lehrich said.
The Republican-run Senate is expected to vote on a tax cut bill this week. If they pass it, Senate Republicans will have to work out the differences between their version and the tax bill that House Republicans approved this month.
It is not known when, or if, a final product can be passed.
When it comes to selling the tax plan, some analysts said Trump tends to get in his own way with political distractions.
In the hours leading up to his Missouri trip, Trump tweeted not only about tax cuts, but unleashed a tweet storm that included anti-Muslim videos as well as attacks on CNN and NBC News.
Politically, tax cuts are designed to appeal to Trump’s electoral base, and those voters expect a bill.
“They’ve made that promise,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor with The
Cook Political Report. “This is what the base expects.”
If those voters are “not energized,” she said, “that can hurt candidates in some places. People would have a hard time answering the question, what have you done?”
On the campaign trail, Trump often touted his business experience, his deal-making savvy, and his ability to get things done.
In the days leading up to the South Carolina primary in February of 2016, Trump told one crowd: “We’re going to win so much. You’re going to get tired of winning.”
After failure on a new health care plan, combined with challenges from North Korea’s nuclear program to the Alabama Senate race, there’s also the prospect of a government shutdown when a current spending plan expires Dec. 8.
With the economy likely to be a big election issue, Haynes said, “it would be nice for him to be able to point to some event that he clearly owns – that he can tie to the success of the economy.”