What to watch in Alabama’s election
What demographics will determine the winner of today’s Senate vote
This from the category of “things you never thought you’d hear”: There is a U.S. Senate race in Alabama this week that is neck-and-neck.
Here’s what to watch in a race between firebrand conservative Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones:
Huntsville
Alabama is a heavily Republican state — Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton there last year, 63%-35%, but Huntsville and surrounding Madison County is more pink than red. In 2016, Trump took 56% of Madison County’s vote, but 80% of the vote in neighboring Jackson County.
“Huntsville is Republican territory but not Roy Moore territory,” said Joseph Smith, chair of the political science department at the University of Alabama. “That’s a place where you might see a drop-off in Republican voting.”
If Jones can keep Moore at or below Trump’s numbers in Madison County, he may have a chance.
Suburban women
This is a key part of the equation in the Huntsville area as well as in Mobile County. Moore is a controversial figure who has twice been removed from his position as chief justice on the Alabama Supreme Court for refusing to enforce laws he felt violated his Christian beliefs, a religious indignation that is less popular among suburban women.
In addition, the explosive allegations against Moore — that he pursued romantic contact with teenage girls when he was in his 30s — could cost him the support of some women who traditionally vote Republican.
Write-in votes
Alabama’s senior senator, Republi- can Richard Shelby, when asked who he had voted for, said: “I wrote in a distinguished Republican. ... It was not Judge Moore.”
This is Jones’ hope: that enough Republicans turned off by Moore’s religious fundamentalism or the scandal headlines will vote for somebody else.
Writing in a candidate may be a more palatable option.
If the “somebody else” vote reaches 5% or more on Tuesday, it could be crucial to the outcome in a race that has seen the two front-runners separated by only about that margin in the polls.
Black voters
African Americans make up about 25% of the Alabama population; Jones needs them to make up 25% or more of the voters, political experts told The Montgomery Advertiser last month.
Alabama’s only Democrat in Congress, Rep. Terri Sewell, has been coordinating visits to the state by highprofile members of the Congressional Black Caucus to get African Americans to vote for Jones, who needs a huge turnout from them in Mobile, Birmingham and Montgomery.