2018 Winter Olympics will test ties between North and South Korea
The 2018 Olympics could be a turning point in relations between North and South Korea.
What no one can predict is whether the Winter Games will set the relationship on a road toward peace or bring the countries closer to another war.
South Korean President Moon Jae In is trying to use the games as a way to lessen tensions.
It’s not clear how the North’s unpredictable leader, Kim Jong Un, will react or whether he will try to disrupt the games, as many South Koreans fear.
In a move toward reconciliation, South Korea said last week that it requested that the United States delay joint military exercises until after the Olympics.
North Korea has a history of supporting terror attacks and assassination attempts against its southern neighbor. The Olympics, which have always been as much about geopolitics as they are about sports, has been a flash point for violence.
In 1987, a pair of North Korean terrorists planted a bomb on a Korean Air flight, killing more than 100 passengers and crew members. An investigation de- termined the objective of the bombing was to disrupt the 1988 Summer Olympics in Seoul by scaring off athletes and spectators.
North Korea hoped to prove that Seoul couldn’t provide security for the games at a critical time for South Korea.
For South Korea, the 1988 Games represented a “coming out,” said Patrick Cronin, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security.
The country was emerging from the shadows of a series of military and autocratic rulers with a vibrant economy and democratic rule.
Preparing for the 1988 Olympics helped propel South Korea toward democracy, Victor Cha wrote in his book Beyond the Final Score: The Politics of Sport in Asia.
Cha, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, may be in line to become President Trump’s ambassador in Seoul.
Balazs Szalontai, an associate professor at Korea University, said it is unlikely that North Korea would attempt a terrorist attack at the 2018 Games. It is possible that the North might “try to steal the limelight” and stage a naval confrontation or carry out a missile test in an effort to embarrass or humiliate South Korea.
South Korea wants to avoid that and “will probably go to great lengths to pacify and calm down North Korea,” Szalontai said.
The two Koreas fought a war that ended in 1953 with an armistice but without a peace treaty.
Moon, who was elected on a platform of renewing a dialogue with the North, has tried to avoid antagonizing Kim’s regime.
He proposed that North and South Korea participate as one team in the Olympics.
North Korea did not respond to the offer.