Opposing view: ‘Arming Ukraine will likely escalate the conflict’
Ukraine matters more to Russia than it does to the United States. This hard reality makes the Trump administration’s recent decision to approve selling lethal weapons to Ukraine, including anti-tank missiles, counterproductive and dangerous.
Defenders of the move contend that it will deter Russia and pressure Vladimir Putin to accept a just political settlement of the continuing war in Ukraine’s Donbas region.
It won’t. Putin is too deeply committed in eastern Ukraine to back down, especially with an election approaching. Russia believes it has vital interests there that it must defend, even if that prolongs economic sanctions.
Soon after news of the arms sales broke, Russia’s deputy foreign minister declared that his country won’t be cowed. Russia has already demonstrated, notably in 2015, that it can parry Ukrainian military advances by sending additional personnel and weaponry. And because Russia shares a 1,200 mile-long border with Ukraine, Moscow will always be able to do so much faster and more easily than Washington can. Thus, arming Ukraine will likely escalate the conflict.
Understanding Ukraine’s significance to Russia is not equivalent to condoning Putin’s annexation of Crimea and support for insurgents in eastern Ukraine. It does mean there are limits to what the U.S. can achieve short of a more serious commitment.
Trump’s $41.5 million arms package will scarcely change battlefield outcomes in Ukraine. But it will certainly provoke Russia. What if Putin ups the ante and Ukraine’s military is pushed back? Will Washington ship more arms? What if that doesn’t work? Ask the “arm Ukraine” folks. You won’t get an answer. Instead, they’ll talk about international norms and self-determination. Sound statecraft demands greater realism about constraints, costs and risks. Ideals aren’t enough.
Rajan Menon is professor of international relations at the City College of New York. William Ruger is vice president for research and policy at the Charles Koch Institute and a veteran of the Afghanistan War.