Figuring out U.S. squad
Brennan: Wagner, left, a cinch before nationals
For about 95% of the Olympic quadrennial, figure skating can be found resting in its rightful place as a popular niche sport that pops up on TV more often than most Olympic sports, but no longer reaches massive audiences it once did in the 1980s and 1990s.
Then there’s the other 5% of the Olympic cycle, more than a month of preparation followed by several weeks of Olympic competition.
That time is now, the time when the sport draws a crowd and becomes its old self again, full of intrigue and drama and loaded with quadruple jumps and judging controversies.
Olympic figure skating is back. The U.S. national figure skating championships begin Wednesday in San Jose with the women’s short program, followed over the next few days by the men’s, pairs and dance competition.
For decades, this competition has also been considered the U.S. Olympic trials for the sport, and, while it is true that the 2018 U.S. Olympic figure skaters will be announced after each event, it’s crucial to know that their selection will not be based entirely (and perhaps hardly at all) on the competition you’ve just watched.
There’s no cheating going on here. This is a smart and necessary move by U.S. Figure Skating. The governing body’s Olympic selection process has become much more like that of gymnastics, with good reason.
For the second Olympics in a row, there’s a figure skating team event, with a coveted medal sitting there for the taking for the USA. It is likely to be one of just three medals American figure skat- ers will win in Pyeongchang: one in men’s (18-year-old Nathan Chen, the only undefeated male skater in the world this season), one in dance (always a strong event for the USA) and one in the team event.
So, it’s vital the governing body picks the right skaters for those three days of team competition, which come at the very beginning of the Games. To field the best team of skaters for that event, strategy comes into play. Who’s skating the short program? Who can handle the pressure of performing for a team, not just for themselves?
Experienced skaters on the world stage who have performed well in annual international team events are essential in this format. The newest, youngest, most delightful and surprising skater, who might charm us with a riveting skate in San Jose, might not be the best person to send to South Korea.
USFS committees will pick the 2018 Olympians, and they will be armed with a long list of criteria about competitions past and present on which to base their decisions. I’ve read it all, and I’m happy to synthesize it for you now: The committees can do whatever they want.
Some of these same considerations were in place four years ago, but they were mostly a well-kept secret, resulting in confusion and controversy when Ashley Wagner, the nation’s most reliable and internationally decorated skater, was properly placed on the 2014 Olympic team over Mirai Nagasu, a 2010 Olympian who had suffered through a couple of uneven seasons but beat Wagner by one place at the 2014 national championships/Olympic trials.
As luck would have it, Wagner and Nagasu are back again. At 26 and 24, respectively, they are wonderful anomalies: women in a little girls’ sport. With three U.S. women’s Olympic slots available, they both could make it, and what a lovely statement that would be.
But, again, the one who almost certainly will be sent to Pyeongchang, barring a complete collapse, will be Wagner, even though she has not skated particularly well so far this season. If she does well in San Jose, she’s on the team. But even if she doesn’t, she’s a known quantity who served as captain of the most recent U.S. team in international competition, and the only American woman to win a world championship medal over the last 11 seasons (silver in 2016), so we can probably read the tea leaves here.
She — and any other U.S. woman — is unlikely to win an individual medal in South Korea. But she, along with Chen and an ice dance team or two, can help the USA to a likely team bronze medal, with the Russians (if their skaters are cleared to compete) and Canada expected to battle for the gold and silver.
But first, there’s the important task of putting together the U.S. team, piece by piece. So watch the ice, but really pay attention to what happens when the committees go behind closed doors.