Pats won’t discount Jaguars’ odds
Jacksonville’s defense, Bortles will be big factors
Three weeks remained in the regular season as the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers prepared for a meeting that many viewed as a preview of the AFC Championship Game.
But a seemingly wacky question loomed that week.
Which, if any, of the other potential AFC playoff teams had a chance to disrupt this supposed date of destiny between the conference’s elite?
I asked around, hoping to learn something from some of the sharpest NFL minds. Kansas City? Baltimore? The Los Angeles Chargers? Jacksonville?
The responses confirmed my suspicions: There was just too significant a drop-off from the two thoroughbreds to the rest of the pack. Too many warts and deficiencies plagued the others.
The Jaguars had a great defense, ev-
eryone agreed, but it was hard to take them seriously with such a shaky quarterback situation. The Ravens and Chiefs were too inconsistent, and the Chargers seemingly had too much ground to make up.
Sure enough, Baltimore and L.A. both missed the playoffs, and the Chiefs went cold after one half and lost in the wild-card round to Tennessee.
One month later, those pesky Jaguars are still standing after beating the Steelers 45-42 Sunday at Heinz Field.
That sets the stage for a meeting with the Patriots at Gillette Stadium next
Sunday in Foxborough, Mass.
The early line has Jacksonville pegged as a 91⁄ 2- point underdog to the Patriots.
New England will make its seventh consecutive appearance in the conference championship game, and the Patriots are led by a future Hall of Fame coach and quarterback.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville hasn’t advanced this far into the postseason since the 1999 campaign. The Jaguars are led by a far less-heralded coach, and their quarterback is regarded by many critics as one of the worst starters in the league.
But we’ve now learned that it’s unwise to discount the Jaguars as a threat to the Patriots’ chances of returning to the Super Bowl.
Even typing that sentence felt crazy. But it’s true.
Equipped with a defense that A.) can rush the quarterback like nobody’s business and B.) boasts the most talented secondary in the league, Jacksonville has a realistic chance against any team.
It leads the league in sacks and rank second in takeaways.
As the Steelers can attest, those two categories are game-changers. In two meetings, the Jaguars defense recorded seven takeaways (six interceptions and a fumble recovery) and scored three touchdowns.
But the big question about Jacksonville has always centered on the other side of the ball, and mainly the quarterback position. The Jaguars boast a talented rookie running back in Leonard Fournette, who rushed for three touchdowns against Pittsburgh on Sunday. But the struggles of quarterback Blake Bortles has routinely limited Jacksonville.
Which Bortles would the Jaguars have on a given day? The guy that had 88 rushing yards and a measly 87 passing yards in the wild-card round against Buffalo, or the player who turned in an effective performance that included 214 passing yards and a touchdown and 35 rushing yards against Pittsburgh?
Defensive players who have faced the Jaguars this season have described their passing concepts as basic and predictable.
But the Jaguars’ commitment to the run helps Bortles, whose coaches used the play-action passing attack to cause doubt in the minds of their foes and also buy Bortles more time to operate.
Look for more of the same recipe next week at New England. That approach has carried the Jaguars this far, so they’re not about to change.
The key to success for the Patriots appears simple. Jump on Jacksonville early, take care of the football (something Pittsburgh was unable to do in either meeting) and then force Bortles to play from behind. His chances of winning a shootout with Tom Brady on the road seem slim to none.
But Bortles did do just fine exchanging big-time throws with Roethlisberger on Sunday, so we should give him some credit. From December on, Bortles has shown he understands the importance of playing within the role that his coaches have defined for him and taking care of the football. Jacksonville on Sunday improved to 10-0 in games this season in which Bortles doesn’t turn the ball over.
But given the roller-coaster season that Bortles has put together, can the fourth-year veteran deliver another near-flawless performance in consecutive weeks?
One other note, the Jaguars benefited from some questionable and costly decisions made by Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. He wound up hampering his team’s efforts almost as badly as did the multiple turnovers.
Bill Belichick will be better in this category. And unlike Tomlin, who had said before Sunday that he was already expecting to face the Patriots again, Belichick will not let his squad underestimate the Jaguars. Belichick always talks up opponents, even exaggerating their strengths so his players understand the importance of respecting their foes.
Even so, this will remain quite the David versus Goliath matchup, so get your popcorn.