Could Big 12 send 9 teams dancing?
Baylor’s home win over Kansas this past weekend catapulted the Bears onto the NCAA tournament bubble. Same story for Oklahoma State, which picked up an upset road win against West Virginia.
Usually one marquee victory won’t place a team on the bubble, but the luxury of playing in the Big 12 — which holds the country’s best conference RPI — is that there’s opportunity to bolster a seemingly pedestrian résumé by adding eye candy that the NCAA tournament selection committee cannot ignore.
That’s why a team with an RPI in the
80s and non-conference schedule of
273 (ahem, Oklahoma State) is being considered for the Big Dance. The Cowboys also beat Kansas, to nicely package with that WVU win. Is it enough to offset a 15-10 record and the aforementioned ugly profile numbers? The committee has put worse teams in before.
Never mind the fact that Baylor and Oklahoma State are 5-7 in the Big 12 (the committee doesn’t look at conference standings and instead examines the full body of work). So are fellow bubble teams TCU and Texas, both of whom are currently in USA TODAY’s bracketology field.
There’s no denying the committee thinks strongly of the Big 12 as a whole. Oklahoma, which sits at .500 in the league race, was one of the top 16 teams announced on Sunday. Overall, nine of the 10 teams are now in consideration for the NCAAs. Only Iowa State doesn’t boost a profile worthy of an at-large bid, and the Cyclones have proved — by beating the likes of Texas Tech, West Virginia and Oklahoma — that they could be a bid thief by stunningly winning the Big 12 tournament.
Conferences have sent more than nine teams to the NCAA tourney before, but if the Big 12 sends all but one team, that percentage (90%) would be the best ever. Now, mathematically, it will be difficult for another Big 12 bubble team not to knock at least one other bubble team out of the mix in the coming weeks. But this past weekend surely proved the depth and parity of the league.
American
Locks: Cincinnati Probable: Wichita State Bubble teams: Houston, Temple
ACC
Locks: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson
Probable: Miami (Fla.), Florida State, Virginia Tech Bubble teams: Louisville, North Carolina State, Syracuse
Atlantic 10
Locks: Rhode Island
Bubble teams: Saint Bonaventure
Big East
Locks: Villanova, Xavier Probable: Creighton, Seton Hall Bubble teams: Butler, Providence, Marquette
Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State Bubble teams: Michigan, Nebraska, Maryland
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, West Virginia
Bubble teams: TCU, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor
Pac-12
Locks: Arizona Probable: Arizona State Bubble teams: Southern California, Washington, UCLA, Utah, Oregon
SEC
Locks: Auburn, Tennessee Probable: Texas A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, Florida, Missouri Bubble teams: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State
Mid-majors
Probable: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s Bubble teams: Nevada, Middle Tennessee State, New Mexico State, Loyola (Ill.), Boise State
***
About our bracketologist: Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his fifth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past four March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star and Collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him @BracketWag.