Voters demand defiant Congress
Poll: They’ll elect people to stand up to Trump
WASHINGTON – Americans are mad, and that puts Republicans at risk.
A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll says voters looking toward the midterm elections are overwhelmingly unhappy with the country’s direction, dissatisfied with its political leadership and interested in electing a Congress that will confront President Trump.
By close to 2-1, 58%-32%, those surveyed say they want to elect a Congress that mostly stands up to the president, not one that mostly cooperates with him.
The level of voter unrest is rare at a time of prosperity, when a 55% majority rate the economy as being in a recovery. Even that assessment has a partisan cast: Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to say the economy is growing.
Seven in 10 Republicans say the country is headed in the right direction. More than eight in 10 Democrats say it’s on the wrong track, and seven in 10 independents agree with them.
“I’m concerned about a lot more than my 401(k) here,” says Lisa Caswell, 37, a teacher from Collingswood, N.J., who was called in the poll. Of Trump, she says, “It seems like every action he takes is to benefit large corporations or white men and white supremacy. I’m nervous for my kids’
safety in school. I’m nervous for my neighbors’ safety. ... I’m concerned about the safety and well-being of everyone in our country.”
William Dimit, 69, a retired robotics manufacturing worker from North Canton, Ohio, couldn’t disagree more. “Trump is doing an outstanding job in office,” he says. “Democrats just don’t want anyone in office but themselves.”
The political landscape is sure to shift over the next eight months, and Democrats may fail to capitalize on opportunities.
If the election were held today, though, those surveyed say they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress than the Republican one by 47%-32% — a yawning 15 percentage-point advantage. Democrats need to flip 24 seats held by Republicans to gain control of the House of Representatives. Winning control of the Senate is more difficult in a year in which 26 Democratic seats and just eight Republican seats are on the ballot.
“A 15-point lead in the generic ballot — that’s a Democratic House, without a doubt,” says David Wasserman, an analyst with the non-partisan Cook Political Report. “That would be a big wave.”
The consequences of winning the House could be considerable. It would give Democrats the power not only to push their legislative priorities but also to schedule hearings, launch investigations and issue subpoenas.
“I think getting a Congress that has the power to impeach Trump would be pretty interesting,” says Nicholas Krasney, 30, a business entrepreneur from Los Angeles.
Sixty percent of those surveyed say they disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president, his highest negative rating in the USA TODAY Poll since he was inaugurated last year. Thirty-nine percent “strongly” disapprove; just 16% “strongly” approve.
Ratings for the Republican-controlled Congress are even worse: 75% disapprove of the job its doing. Thirtysix percent “strongly” disapprove, and just 5% “strongly” approve.
That intensity of feeling could affect efforts to convince voters to go to the polls. Turnout traditionally is lower in midterm elections than in presidential years.
“I always vote, but I’m not that excited about it,” says Chris Coda, 38, a medical device salesman from Elkhorn, Neb., who typically votes Republican. “I think the election will favor the Democrats, so I don’t think my vote will matter all that much.”
The Republican Party has a dismal rating: 27% have a favorable opinion of the GOP, 60% an unfavorable one. That’s a net negative rating of 33 percentage points.
The Democratic Party’s favorableunfavorable rating is 37%-48%, a net negative of 11 points.
Attitudes toward the nation’s two major parties are so dyspeptic that even a share of partisans express a dim view. One in five Republicans and one in five Democrats say they have an unfavorable opinion of their own party. Among independents, half have an unfavorable view of the Democrats; twothirds have a negative view of the GOP.
Asked to name the most important issue that will affect their vote in November, those surveyed put immigration and border security at the top of the list, followed closely by gun control and the Second Amendment. (In the poll, taken in the aftermath of the mass shooting in Parkland, Fla., school safety is among the top seven issues.) Taxes and fees rank third. Jobs and the economy are fourth.
“When you combine the responses of ‘gun control’ and ‘school safety,’ not only do we see a new No. 1 issue important to voters for the 2018 congressional elections, but we also feel the power of those numbers because they cut across demographics like gender, age, and political party affiliation,” says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
One issue rarely cited: Russian meddling in U.S. elections. Less than
1% — three Democrats and two independents among 1,000 registered voters surveyed — identify that as the most important issue to them.
A record number of women seek office this year. Almost three-fourths of voters say a candidate’s gender doesn’t matter. Among those who say it does, the advantage is female: 16% say they would prefer to vote for a woman, all things being equal, more than double the 7% who say they would prefer to vote for a man.
Among those who have a preference, Republicans by more than 2-1 would prefer to vote for a man. Democrats by nearly 7-1 would prefer to vote for a woman.
“I’m not saying Congress should be
100% female,” says Lee Douglass, 32, a small-business owner from San Jose, Calif. “But when women are 51% of the entire population and there’s such a small number represented in Congress, I feel that we need to elect women to make up for that.”