NBA playoff picture assessment
West to East, battles for 1-2, 3-8 seeds
Standings watching began earlier than usual this NBA season.
Even before the All-Star break, teams recognized the tightly bunched Western and Eastern conferences. No seed in either conference is nailed down. Houston and Golden State are vying for the No. 1 in the West, and Toronto and Boston are battling for the top seed in the East. Through Monday’s games, the Rockets were a half-game up on the Warriors and the Raptors were 11⁄ games
2 in front of the Celtics.
Spots 3-8 in both conferences are up for grabs — just 31⁄ games separated
2 third place from eighth place in the East and just four games separated third place from 10th in the West.
“That’s what makes the NBA great,” Washington coach Scott Brooks said. “That’s what makes it better than it’s ever been because of this parity and all the plots and story lines that are going on.”
It’s rare both conferences have such close playoff races, and this is the closest at this point in the season over the past 18 years. In 2011-12 — a season shortened to 66 games because of a lockout — six games were between spots 3-8 in the East and 51⁄ games be
2 tween 3-11 in the West through games of March 4.
The standings are like an elevator. Teams go up, teams go down. How competitive is it? Houston won 15 consecutive games and still had just the halfgame lead over Golden State. Utah has won 15 of its past 17 games but can’t even crack the top eight in the West.
In October the grueling NBA season is considered a marathon and not a sprint. But with one quarter of the regular season left, it’s a mad dash to the finish line.
Eastern Conference
Toronto and Boston have the top two seeds just about locked up with five weeks remaining. But that race is undecided, and they play each other two more times in what could determine who gets the top seed.
After that — in order through Monday’s games — Cleveland, Indiana, Washington, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Miami are jammed tight, and the Cavaliers are just 21⁄ games ahead of
2
Philadelphia.
The Pacers have the most difficult schedule remaining in the East, according to Basketball-reference.com, with 13 of 18 games against playoff-bound or playoff-caliber teams, including Golden State twice and Toronto twice.
Washington also has a tough schedule and is without injured All-Star point guard John Wall. The Wizards are six games into a stretch of 13 consecutive games against teams that are playoff bound by today’s standings.
Ten of Cleveland’s remaining 19 games are against teams in playoff contention, but 11 of those games are on the road. There’s no guarantee the Cavs hold on to the third or fourth spot, and this will be LeBron James’ lowest seed since the 2008 playoffs.
Western Conference
The stakes are even higher in the West, where this game of musical chairs might wind up costing some team or two dearly.
With eight teams vying for six spots, consider the possible ripple effects.
As free agency recruitment efforts go, it couldn’t get much worse than Oklahoma City missing the playoffs just a few months before it hopes to re-sign Paul George. The five-time All-Star small forward has made it clear that this isn’t a championship-or-bust situation, but it’s hard to imagine him feeling bullish on the Thunder situation if he ends up fishing by mid-April. This, of course, is music to the Lakers’ ears.
There are bigger implications for the Spurs, who could miss the postseason for the first time in 20 years. Franchise centerpiece Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely after playing nine games, and his mysterious recovery process in dealing with quadriceps tendinopathy has created a divide between him and the organization. Leonard is eligible for a supermax contract extension this summer, and it’s anyone’s guess how the season might impact his future.
Meanwhile in Minnesota, one of the season’s best stories turned sour quickly after Jimmy Butler tore his meniscus Feb. 23. There’s a chance the four-time All-Star returns in time for the playoffs, but the Timberwolves — owners of the league’s longest playoff drought that began in 2005 — would have to get there first. They’re 2-2 without Butler, and a brutal schedule awaits the next two weeks.
New Orleans is the most unexpected contender. The Pelicans have won nine of 14 games, and eight in a row, since All-Star center and soon-to-be free agent DeMarcus Cousins suffered a seasonending Achilles tear Jan. 26. All hail Anthony Davis, whose late entry into the MVP conversation has served as the latest reminder the Pelicans don’t ever want to let him get away.
The 24-year-old can be a free agent in 2020, but there’s already widespread speculation that the Celtics and likely others will keep trying to land him via trade long before then. Davis’ happiness level is the key to this situation, and it’s safe to assume that a second playoff berth in six tries would go a long way.
It wasn’t too long ago folks around the league were wondering if Portland’s backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum (both signed through 2021) were going to stay together for the long haul, but the prospect of a high seed has helped quiet that. The Blazers have won seven consecutive games, and nine out of 10, while rising to No. 3 in the West.